Orbitcast: XM-Sirius Merger to be Announced? Should SEC get involved w/ false rumors?

[mendoman]

I searched the boards to find another thread on this article but couldn't find one:

http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/xmsirius-merger-plans-to-be-announced-today.html


Here's the text of the article:


According to theflyonthewall.com (http://www.theflyonthewall.com/), XM and Sirius are expected to make an announcement at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit - today 01/11/2007.Bank of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby met with XM Management at CES earlier this week, and it is his view that XM is considering the merger option quite seriously. Citigroup analyst Eileen Furukawa after an investor dinner with Gary Parsons also noted (http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jan2007/pi20070110_451996.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index _businessweek+exclusives) a she "sensed an increased openness from XM re: the possibility of merger with Sirius."
Now mind you, there's a big difference between these two companies wanting a merger, and whether it will really happen (see my 5 reasons why it won't happen (http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/siriusxm-merger-5-big-reasons-why-it-wont-happen.html) post). There's many hurdles along the way, especially the "balance of power" between the two companies in this newly formed entity, but this is a clear shift in XM's previous position on the merger itself.
From an investor's standpoint: Bear Stearn analyst Robert Peck said it perfectly in a recent note, "the possibility of a merger has likely been the single most important factor impacting valuations recently."
From a customer's standpoint: is this really the best thing? Who knows, but at this point it's way to early to even consider the implications of a merger actually going through.

[boardsofcanada]

This must have some truth to it. Almost everyday there is a new one of these and the boys havent been denying it lately.

[ruckstande]

My only gripe with this whole thing, would E-Lo be in charge?

[Dr. Hoffman]

I don't buy it.

[Tazznum1]

I think the universe would explode if the bbboys and howie worked for the same man again.

[Goober]

Sounds like something that would happen on Earth 2.

What ever happened to that bit?

[Death Metal Moe]

If I can still get Ron and Fez and O&A I'll be happy, but it will irk me a bit knowing that a piece of my sub will go to that no talent Hoo Hoo.

[Death Metal Moe]

Sounds like something that would happen on Earth 2.

What ever happened to that bit?

Hayseeds.

The same thing that happened to a lot of call in bits. The callers are too fucking stupid when you open it up to the country.

[Bralio]

Well, that'd certainly entitle the bbbboys to their own $80-something-million bonus for quadrilliioning the number of subs for whatever the new company would be called... What would it be called? XMius? SiriXMus? El Sucko?

...2007 - the year of Who Gives a Shit

[Begbie]

I tell ya, even if XM and Sirius proposed a merger, I just don't see it getting passed federal regulators and the SEC. Make the "XM/Sirius is just a small fish in the big radio industry pond" reasoning all you want...but I just don't think the government, especially a more liberal government, will approve of it.

There would be generally no chance for competition up against XMSirius. No one in their right mind would start a new satrad company and go up against them. Major content between both companies, all four major sports leagues, hosts and talent like O&A, Stern (ugh), Oprah, Bob Edwards...they're all tied into exclusive contracts with the two companies. What customer would want a service that's not geared towards sports or has radio hosts you've never heard of?

I don't see this happening.

[Captain_Spaulding]

Don't care. As long as the boys are on Sat I will keep my sub.

[Beeman99]

Wouldn't a merger form a monopoly in the Sat Radio industry, and I thought that was a big no no. I don't really give a fuck, as DMM said, as long as I have O&A and R&F who gives a fuck. Hoo Hoo would be in O&A's position at WNEW, he'd be low man on the totem pole. And I'd get Nascar back, which would make me happy.


*edit*

I found this site, http://www.radiosatellite.org/, and how is sirius worth 3 billion more than XM???

[SabresRule]

They are likely talking about merged technology to fit cars

[Tazznum1]

Hoo Hoo would be in O&A's position at WNEW, he'd be low man on the totem pole. And I'd get Nascar back, which would make me happy.



How do you figure that? I would love to believe that though.

[mendoman]

They are likely talking about merged technology to fit cars

I agree wholeheartedly with this one.

[abudabit]

If this turns out to be just another bullshit rumor can we PLEASE ******* out the word 'merger' from now on?

[SabresRule]

FCC's Martin Hints Satellite Radio Merger Would Be Blocked
http://www.fmqb.com/Article.asp?id=332318

January 11, 2007
The ongoing rumors of a merger between XM and Sirius came up once again at yesterday's Citigroup investor conference in Las Vegas. Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin, as well as FCC Chairman Kevin Martin, were on hand at the event and both were asked about the idea.

Karmazin said that a merger could be in the best interests of both satcasters and would be open to such a deal. "One way you can create shareholder value is through consolidation, particularly in a fragmented industry like radio," he said, according to CNN. "Conceptually a deal makes sense and you could add value from synergies."

However, Martin hinted that any potential satellite radio merger would be held up by the FCC. While he wouldn't take a specific stance on the issue, Martin is quoted by Inside Radio as saying that the closest situation would be the way the Commission handled "what we did on [satellite] television." The FCC had blocked a proposed merger between Echostar and DirecTV.

During his speech, Karmazin also defended Howard Stern's recent $82.9 million stock bonus, which was announced earlier this week and coincided with Stern's one-year anniversary at Sirius. "Howard got a bonus for exceeding the consensus subscriber number from Wall Street by more than 2 million," Karmazin said. "In all candor, I hope he hits all of his milestones."

Representing Stern's former employer CBS Corp., President/CEO Les Moonves was also on hand at the conference. He predicted CBS would double its Web revenue in 2007 and noted that CBS Radio had a tough 2006, stemming from Stern jumping ship. "We lost the guy I'm not allowed to legally talk about," Moonves joked, according to CNN.

[deadfruitvirus]

FCC's Martin Hints Satellite Radio Merger Would Be Blocked
http://www.fmqb.com/Article.asp?id=332318

January 11, 2007
The ongoing rumors of a merger between XM and Sirius came up once again at yesterday's Citigroup investor conference in Las Vegas. Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin, as well as FCC Chairman Kevin Martin, were on hand at the event and both were asked about the idea.

Karmazin said that a merger could be in the best interests of both satcasters and would be open to such a deal. "One way you can create shareholder value is through consolidation, particularly in a fragmented industry like radio," he said, according to CNN. "Conceptually a deal makes sense and you could add value from synergies."

However, Martin hinted that any potential satellite radio merger would be held up by the FCC. While he wouldn't take a specific stance on the issue, Martin is quoted by Inside Radio as saying that the closest situation would be the way the Commission handled "what we did on [satellite] television." The FCC had blocked a proposed merger between Echostar and DirecTV.

During his speech, Karmazin also defended Howard Stern's recent $82.9 million stock bonus, which was announced earlier this week and coincided with Stern's one-year anniversary at Sirius. "Howard got a bonus for exceeding the consensus subscriber number from Wall Street by more than 2 million," Karmazin said. "In all candor, I hope he hits all of his milestones."

Representing Stern's former employer CBS Corp., President/CEO Les Moonves was also on hand at the conference. He predicted CBS would double its Web revenue in 2007 and noted that CBS Radio had a tough 2006, stemming from Stern jumping ship. "We lost the guy I'm not allowed to legally talk about," Moonves joked, according to CNN.

Now watch the stock fall.

[fandango86]

Ok, so forget all the monopoly stuff for a second. What do you think happens to our pals if this goes through. I see 3 options:

1) They're FIIIIIIIIIIIIRED!
2) Afternoon drive on Howard 101 - 'We didn't sell out, we bought in!'
3) Stay on 202 and compete with Howard everyday

I think it depends on what the new company looks like. They could keep both companies seperate in the eyes of the consumer. XM would maintain exclusivity with O&A, Oprah, Bob Dylan, MLB, and NHL. Sirius would maintain the same with Howard, NFL, NBA, etc. However, the music channels would be merged, along with all the other 'common' channels the two services provide (CNN, ESPN, etc.) If think this is the most likely scenario, at least in the short term, which would allow O&A to stay on 202 and keep doing their thing. At least, that's what I'm hoping... yikes!

[SabresRule]

1) They're FIIIIIIIIIIIIRED! - no fucking way
2) Afternoon drive on Howard 101 - 'We didn't sell out, we bought in!' - no never god no fucking way
3) Stay on 202 and compete with Howard everyday - won't this be fun!

[Dr. Hoffman]

Ok, let's just assume for one minute the two company's do merge. O&A would be gone in a heatbeat. Hoo Hoo would push right off the bat to shut them up so they can't say anything about him, while of course allowing him to bash them non-stop. They already put up with this once, not happening again.

That said, the two aren't merging.

[Haeder]

If XM and Sirius merge, would existing subscribers have access to all programming on both platforms for pretty much the same price?

E-Lo's job would suck ass if they merged. Nobody could keep that many jocks happy.

If they do merge, please rename the new company "Satellite Radio" and not something retarded like we all know they will anyway. Most non-subscribers don't have a clue that XM and Sirius aren't the same thing.

And, if they do merge, we'll all keep right on subscribing because Free FM is garbage.

[Dr. Hoffman]

If XM and Sirius merge, would existing subscribers have access to all programming on both platforms for pretty much the same price?

E-Lo's job would suck ass if they merged. Nobody could keep that many jocks happy.

If they do merge, please rename the new company "Satellite Radio" and not something retarded like we all know they will anyway. Most non-subscribers don't have a clue that XM and Sirius aren't the same thing.

And, if they do merge, we'll all keep right on subscribing because Free FM is garbage.

That's another reason they won't merge. The broadcast technology of the satellite platforms are incompatible.a

[Beeman99]

How do you figure that? I would love to believe that though.

If they were to "merger", Mel would not be the man in charge, as Sirius I have to believe is in worse shape then XM, although XM isn't faring well either right now. Without Mel in charge, Howie is third rate at best, sure he brought in a million subs, whoopde shit, what about the other 16 million. 500 million is a lot of dough for those kinds of numbers, so I'd say he is a failure only for the fact he didn't do for Sirius what they thought he would.

[Beeman99]

Ok, let's just assume for one minute the two company's do merge. O&A would be gone in a heatbeat. Hoo Hoo would push right off the bat to shut them up so they can't say anything about him, while of course allowing him to bash them non-stop. They already put up with this once, not happening again.

That said, the two aren't merging.

You're giving Howie more power than he actually has. They aren't merging, but if the did, I can't see Mel being in charge, and without Mel, Howie is just a jew hack that couldn't adapt.

[deadfruitvirus]

You're giving Howie more power than he actually has. They aren't merging, but if the did, I can't see Mel being in charge, and without Mel, Howie is just a jew hack that couldn't adapt.

I could. Mel Karmazin is Wall Street's hero. Wherever he goes, investors follow. Sirius has a higher enterprise value mainly thanks to his arrival, even though the stock is as low as it is. More people have bought Sirius stock.

[Beeman99]

I could. Mel Karmazin is Wall Street's hero. Wherever he goes, investors follow. Sirius has a higher enterprise value mainly thanks to his arrival, even though the stock is as low as it is. More people have bought Sirius stock.


Is he still the "genius" that Wall Street thought he was pre-Howie Sirius?? His 500 million investment in Hoo Hoo isn't paying back as it should be, and that is a black mark. But who knows, you could be right. Speculation at it's finest right.:action-sm

[Tazznum1]

HooHoo signed on and got that fat payday before Mel got there (a couple of weeks before). So there goes that argument.

Sirius likes to suck his ass. Don't know why, but they do.

[Beeman99]

HooHoo signed on and got that fat payday before Mel got there (a couple of weeks before). So there goes that argument.

Sirius likes to suck his ass. Don't know why, but they do.

You don't think Mel had his hands all over the Howie deal though

[Tazznum1]

I'm sure they both praised each others fantastic resumes to get the cash they did. But Hoohoo I'm sure took every step to continue reaping the paycheck for 5 years. And now with the bonus, if they do merge HooHoo probably got it locked that they HAVE to keep him for the remainder of his contract.

[estrov]

They are likely talking about merged technology to fit cars


Here you have a real possiblity. XM and Sirius stay separate and sell content. The technologies merge (like FM or AM) and the two companies stay separate.

Someone's technology has to go bye bye with this scenario and some sort of sharing agreement would need to be made on who gets what bandwidth.

This is not trivial, but could help defer the costs associated with financing auto companies to add one or the other technology.

[BullsLawDan]

I searched the boards to find another thread on this article but couldn't find one:

http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/xmsirius-merger-plans-to-be-announced-today.html


Here's the text of the article:


According to theflyonthewall.com (http://www.theflyonthewall.com/), XM and Sirius are expected to make an announcement at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit - today 01/11/2007.Bank of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby met with XM Management at CES earlier this week, and it is his view that XM is considering the merger option quite seriously. Citigroup analyst Eileen Furukawa after an investor dinner with Gary Parsons also noted (http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jan2007/pi20070110_451996.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index _businessweek+exclusives) a she "sensed an increased openness from XM re: the possibility of merger with Sirius."
Now mind you, there's a big difference between these two companies wanting a merger, and whether it will really happen (see my 5 reasons why it won't happen (http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/siriusxm-merger-5-big-reasons-why-it-wont-happen.html) post). There's many hurdles along the way, especially the "balance of power" between the two companies in this newly formed entity, but this is a clear shift in XM's previous position on the merger itself.
From an investor's standpoint: Bear Stearn analyst Robert Peck said it perfectly in a recent note, "the possibility of a merger has likely been the single most important factor impacting valuations recently."
From a customer's standpoint: is this really the best thing? Who knows, but at this point it's way to early to even consider the implications of a merger actually going through.

http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e225/tivodan1116/wtf.jpg

http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e225/tivodan1116/exploding_head.jpg

http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e225/tivodan1116/BeatDeadHorse.gif

The End.

[RMM46]

...

[Sprite]

Hayseeds.

The same thing that happened to a lot of call in bits. The callers are too fucking stupid when you open it up to the country.

:clap:

Sorry to be off topic, but thank you DMM. I mean, thaaaaaaaaaaank you.

[WOWmagnet]

If it DOES happen guess what? Karmazian will be the boss.

Then the boys will not be able to talk about HOO HOO. Remember 1999?

[Tazznum1]

Mel's got the cred.

[flounder]

If these 2 company's merged and O+A were fired I would that same day cancel all 5 of my subscriptions, smash every radio and mail them to XM. Granted if R_+F stayed on I wouldnt mind losing one half of there show, cause I would still have them on Free FM with O+A. Fuck Sirius and Fuck Howard - Fuck them, Fuck them with a Fucking Whiffle Ball Bat

[Begbie]

If XM and Sirius merge, would existing subscribers have access to all programming on both platforms for pretty much the same price?

E-Lo's job would suck ass if they merged. Nobody could keep that many jocks happy.

The way I see it, and someone correct me if I'm wrong....

XM and Sirius need to get permission and purchase bandwidth from the government. The FCC have put limits on the amount of bandwidth both companies can have, and that makes adding bandwidth close to impossible.

In theory, an XM/Sirius merger would combine bandwidths and we'd have a ton more channels. But, the government would absolutely subtract bandwidth from the merged company because again, no company can afford to go up against XMSirius and purchase enough bandwidth to compete. Which is another reason why a merger is dead in water.

So, you would then have two merged companies with the amount of bandwidth for one. Which means alot of music channels for both services are gone, O&A/R&F would probably go to an Extreme Talk-type channel with Philips Phile and Lex and Terry, and some specialty talk/news channels gone. Also, there's a tremendous technology gap between both services...that costs ALOT of money!

The only logical thing that can be done is the dual-receiver option, where they're still two companies, but same receivers. XM and Sirius radios, like AM/FM as was mentioned. And maybe get both services for a discounted $20-$22 a month.

[mascan42]

People don't care anymore about rumors that there's going to be a merger. So these bloggers now have to up the ante and invent a rumor that the merger's going to be announced. Next thing you know, there'll be a rumor that the merger . . . <:icon_cool> has already happened.

YEEEEEAAAAAHHH!!!!!!

[mascan42]

BTW, the chairman of the FCC has already basically said that there's no way this would go through.

[Killtron]

The only way they would be able to get by the bandwidth problem would be to use one set of music channels and the only real combo would be the news/talk stations, and even that way they would still have to get rid of some of their channels.

There is no way in hell this would ever happen, but if it did, and O&A kept 202, I don't know if I would be thrilled and just block Howie's channel, or pissed!

But like I said, no way it gets to that point in the first place. Damn rumors taking up valuable time!

[filmrcj]

Anthother statement left out is mel saying sub rates will go up as well. It anthother attempt for mel to get press and raise stock price.I'm suprise that he has not had any criminal charges brought up since he is playing with the news for the benefit to raise the artificial value of sirius

[generoso]

I know this was bogus it Was Orbitcast and not AP

[NorfCal]

This thread stinks, like all other merger speculation threads.

[beaver hunt]

Not gonna happen. The two companies have such different management. I think the two hate each other!!

[Philly loser]

As long as O&A and R&F are available to me, I'm a subscriber. If they weren't, my three subs would be done.

I know there is a lot of Howard and Mel hate here, but look at Sirius sub numbers since they've become part of the doggy.

I still don't see this happening, but if it meant I kept the two best shows and got more programming, I call it a win. Of course, I never listen to anything but O&A and the buddays anyway, so I guess the extra channels wouldn't mean that much.

Wow, what a wasted post. I'm babbling like an idiot.

[Hydrosludge]

Here you have a real possiblity. XM and Sirius stay separate and sell content. The technologies merge (like FM or AM) and the two companies stay separate.

Someone's technology has to go bye bye with this scenario and some sort of sharing agreement would need to be made on who gets what bandwidth.

This is not trivial, but could help defer the costs associated with financing auto companies to add one or the other technology.

Why would the technologies have to merge? If the car is satellite, Ipod, or CD changer ready, any of them will work in it.


I wish Mel would just STFU

[LiLJimmysHog]

They are likely talking about merged technology to fit cars

My 2 cents.....I totaly agree. There was talk about merging technology back in 2005.

[Radioguy]

Hypothetically, and assuming both networks were to merge on the consumer level (which I'd doubt), would E-Lo and Stra-Lo remain as the heads of talk programming?

I mean....could someone else.... perhaps someone living an "alternative lifestyle" in the same field take over for both companies?

[Dr. Hoffman]

Hmmmm, what a surprise. It's Friday and there was no merger. You think the SEC would start investigating why these rumors keep coming up. You'd also think that these reporters would also do a little homework.

[Freese]

Rumors

Saturday steppin' into the club
And it makes me wanna tell the DJ
Turn It Up
I feel the energy all around
And my body can't stop moving to the sound

But I can tell that you're watching me
And you're probably gonna write what you didn't see
Well I just need a little space to breathe
Can you please respect my privacy

[BRIDGE:]
Why can't you just let me
Do the things I wanna do
I just wanna be me
I don't understand why
Would you wanna bring me down
I'm only having fun
I'm gonna live my life
Like I wanna do

[CHORUS:]
I'm tired of rumors starting
I'm sick of being followed
I'm tired of people lying
Saying what they want about me
Why can't they back up off me
Why can't they let me live
I'm gonna do it my way
Take this for just what it is

Here we are back up in the club
People taking pictures
Don't you think they get enough
I just wanna be all over the floor
And throw my hands up in the air to a beat like (What?)

I've gotta say respectfully
I would like it if you take the cameras off of me
'Cause I just want a little room to breathe
Can you please respect my privacy

[BRIDGE:]
Why can't you just let me
Do the things I wanna do
I just wanna be me
I don't understand why
Would you wanna bring me down
I'm only having fun
I'm gonna live my life
But not the way you want me to

[CHORUS:]
I'm tired of rumors starting
I'm sick of being followed
I'm tired of people lying
Saying what they want about me
Why can't they back up off me
Why can't they let me live
I'm gonna do it my way
Take this for just what it is

I just need to free my mind (my mind)
Just wanna dance and have a good time (good time)

I'm tired of rumors (rumors)
Followed (followed, followed, followed, followed, followed)

What they (follow) me
Why can't they (they they they-they-they) let me live

Take this for just what it is

[CHORUS:]
I'm tired of rumors starting
I'm sick of being followed
I'm tired of people lying
Saying what they want about me
Why can't they back up off me
Why can't they let me live
I'm gonna do it my way
Take this for just what it is

I'm tired of rumors starting
I'm sick of being followed
I'm tired of people lying
Saying what they want about me
Why can't they back up off me
why can't they let me live
I'm gonna do it my way
Take this for just what it is

[estrov]

Why would the technologies have to merge? If the car is satellite, Ipod, or CD changer ready, any of them will work in it.


I wish Mel would just STFU

You have Sirius broadcasting using their technology on FCC approved bandwidth, and XM with another tech on a different FCC allocated bandwidth.

The "merger" would be to use a single technology on a set bandwidth(like AM or FM). Now, if the FCC allows this, you would have the capability of multiple content providers streaming satellite radio. XM could offer a channel line up, Sirius, CBS, MTV, Clear Channel ......

The hold up here is the fact that you have 2 different technologies and each company selling thier linup on them.

[BigBuffaloFan]

Sounds like something that would happen on Earth 2.

What ever happened to that bit?

I love that bit.

[BigBuffaloFan]

Hmmmm, what a surprise. It's Friday and there was no merger. You think the SEC would start investigating why these rumors keep coming up. You'd also think that these reporters would also do a little homework.

This actually what I expect from reporters these days. I would also like to see the SEC get involved. I also noticed the the past couple of days the stock for both companies has been going up.