Looks like Sirius is losing 2x as many subs as they are adding lately.

[fkent484]

I am sorry I had to revive this old thread but I still can't start my own yet...

Frrrruuuunnnkkkkuuuusssss.

I was reading up on the latest XM news and ran across this article on the Stern Effect.

Looks like Sirius is losing 2x as many subs as they are adding lately.

I don't pretend to know what the churn rate for XM is but XM never claimed to have someone pulling in all of their subs nor have they ever paid someone $500 mil to do so.

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070108/23660_id.html?.v=1

[N.Y. Johnny]

I can imagine alot of their free trial subs are ending and they're not buying into the service anymore. But hey, Howards got 6 million listeners tuned in remember! all of them!

[deadfruitvirus]

I can imagine alot of their free trial subs are ending and they're not buying into the service anymore. But hey, Howards got 6 million listeners tuned in remember! all of them!

XM has a bad churn with OEM trial subs (which is a lot of the subs). The difference between the two companies is that XM trials are only 3 months long. Sirius trials are 1 year.

[Begbie]

Right on...alot of it comes down to those OEM free trials. The free trial ends, and alot of people probably opt to not start paying for it. That's a problem for both companies.

I'm sure there are alot of people who are in the middle of, or at the tail end of their free trial with Sirius. They go out to buy a car, and say "sure, a free 1 year trial with Sirius sounds interesting." And they realize at the end of it that they can do without paying what may become $15/month. It's a hassle for people to have to start paying for this service...especially when you have a receiver that's built into the vehicle. For $15/month, I wanna be able to take it everywhere I go...which is where the portable receivers come into play.

Sirius clearly did better than XM this past year and alot of it is thanks to an increase an OEM free trials. With those coming to an end soon, I see big trouble this year for Sirius.

[Hog's Big Ben]

I was reading up on the latest XM news and ran across this article on the Stern Effect.

Looks like Sirius is losing 2x as many subs as they are adding lately.

I don't pretend to know what the churn rate for XM is but XM never claimed to have someone pulling in all of their subs nor have they ever paid someone $500 mil to do so.

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070108/23660_id.html?.v=1


XM's churn rate is mentioned in the article you quoted. XM loses roughly twice as many subs as Sirius loses each quarter.

The scary part is that XM has recently begun losing twice as many old subs each quarter as it has netted in new subs. Meanwhile, Sirius is only losing half as many as it gains.

For example, in the third quarter of last year, XM gained 866,000 new (gross) subs. But 580,000 old subs canceled, leaving them with only 286,000 new (net) subs on paper. In the same quarter, Sirius got 722,000 new subs, but only 281,000 old ones bailed, giving them a net of 441,000, so it gives the impression that they are now kicking XM's ass.

One thing to note: Sirius has NEVER outsold XM. The problem XM keeps having is that a ridiculous number of subscribers bail out each quarter. Even during Sirius's biggest quarter (2005 Q4, just before Hoo Hoo opened mic) where they finally beat XM for the first time in net subs, XM still beat them in overall new subs. But they lost almost 4x as many old ones as Sirius did.

The genius that can get XM's subs to stay on board will be the one that saves the sinking ship. XM's marketing is doing their job to pull in new subs. Someone just needs to figure out how to keep them.

[Begbie]

Even though it may not be a good idea from a financial standpoint...I think it would help if XM lowered their price to like $10.95/mo. You have Sirius climb to $14.95/mo, then immediately decide...our competitor raised their prices...we're confident in our direction that we're lowering them. I think that would help keep people from cancelling, might attract some "on the fence" Siriots concerned about the impending $14.95/mo fee, and is a huge selling point when people comparison shop. Ya know the "well, I've heard of Howard Stern and I see the NFL and NBA are over at Sirius...but XM has more music channels, better technology, and it's almost $4 cheaper per month!"

Of course, if that fails miserably...you've got a financial mess on your hands. I guess that's why I'm not a CFO.

[MilkmanDan]

Have noticed XM's stock has slowly been rising, today up to 17.1 (maybe higher earlier in the day). from the 10 it bottomed at at one point. Sirius had pretty steadily stayed the same around 3.5

[dudleylaywicker]

Looks like Sirius is losing 2x as many subs as they are adding lately.




Deactivations for Q2 were 230K vs. 66K (up 350%) in Q205, while subscriptions grew to 830K from 432K

If they lost 230K subs and added 830K subs it means that they were gaining 3.6X as many subs as they were losing.

[Hog's Big Ben]

Have noticed XM's stock has slowly been rising, today up to 17.1 (maybe higher earlier in the day). from the 10 it bottomed at at one point. Sirius had pretty steadily stayed the same around 3.5


Hmmm...in roughly the same three months that the FM ratings dropped about 20%, XM's stock has gone up about 40%. Sirius has barely budged.

XM vs Sirius over the past 3 months (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?PT=4&D5=0&D2=0&showchartbt=Redraw+Chart&D4=1&compsyms=xmsr%2Csiri&MA0=0&MA1=0&D7=&D6=&C5=1&C6=&C7=1&C8=&C9=0&symbol=XMSR&nocookie=1)

http://img353.imageshack.us/img353/2437/xmsrsiridr8.gif

[enihcaM]

XM's churn rate is mentioned in the article you quoted. XM loses roughly twice as many subs as Sirius loses each quarter.

The scary part is that XM has recently begun losing twice as many old subs each quarter as it has netted in new subs. Meanwhile, Sirius is only losing half as many as it gains.

For example, in the third quarter of last year, XM gained 866,000 new (gross) subs. But 580,000 old subs canceled, leaving them with only 286,000 new (net) subs on paper. In the same quarter, Sirius got 722,000 new subs, but only 281,000 old ones bailed, giving them a net of 441,000, so it gives the impression that they are now kicking XM's ass.

One thing to note: Sirius has NEVER outsold XM. The problem XM keeps having is that a ridiculous number of subscribers bail out each quarter. Even during Sirius's biggest quarter (2005 Q4, just before Hoo Hoo opened mic) where they finally beat XM for the first time in net subs, XM still beat them in overall new subs. But they lost almost 4x as many old ones as Sirius did.

The genius that can get XM's subs to stay on board will be the one that saves the sinking ship. XM's marketing is doing their job to pull in new subs. Someone just needs to figure out how to keep them.

well, the thing is that Sirius beats XM in "retail" (radios purchased at Best Buy, Frys, etc.)

XM has a GM contract which is great for them...but the thing is that many of that same HUGE chunk of customers dont stick around after they trade in their car or when the free trial ends. If they did, it would be a different ballgame. XM, im sure is greatful for having the GM contract, no doubt.

[Dave _from_Kiev]

I'm one of them. MY free trial on my truck expired on the 6th of this month. when I hit the aux button on the radio it says "call sirius". It will be that way as long as I have the truck.

[Mother Shucker]

Happy anniversary Hoo Hoo.

[hartdykes]

Has anyone else notice that today is HOO HOO Howies birthday. Its on imdb.com

[Schmed]

THREE'S A CROWD

JD came into the studio to talk about his date this weekend at the AVN Awards with the porn star, Kimberly Kane. JD added he'd be walking the red carpet with Kimberly, and that they'd be presenting an award alongside Carrot Top. After Howard asked JD if he thought there was a chance Kimberly was also dating Carrot Top - which he didn't think was the case - Artie pointed out there was no tougher crowd than porn stars, explaining his friend, Jim Norton, once hosted the AVNs, and that he reported women were in the audience "sucking their own tits" while he was onstage trying to be funny.

I'm surprised Who?Who? allowed this to be posted.

[N.Y. Johnny]

The genius that can get XM's subs to stay on board will be the one that saves the sinking ship. XM's marketing is doing their job to pull in new subs. Someone just needs to figure out how to keep them.


I've posted somewhere, maybe here or on 411, that the price is always an issue that comes up with folks that don't have or don't know much experiences with Satellite Radio. I know some of them seem wary of dropping $12.95 per month on something.

I think what XM should do is have different pricing plans for each type of service people want, like the Dish companies do. They don't force you to get all the premium stuff in one blow, they got the basic package then you add on sports or movies.

I think they should have just sports priced reasonably, and or the talk ALL priced reasonably and the music apart also. If everyone wants it all then do the $12.95. I don't know if thats at all possible I don't know maybe it is or isn't but it might make some people think twice about it.

In regards to old subs churning out, I am in the camp of the folks that thinks the Sound Quality is an issue. Thats an entire other point that starts message board wars, but I do definitely hear a difference and I blame the Clear Channel deal on all that. They're eating up bandwidth and sabotaging XM every day they are on board.

[Freese]

I'd love to dump baseball and the country channels and save a few bucks.

[UCFGavin]

I think they should have just sports priced reasonably, and or the talk ALL priced reasonably and the music apart also. If everyone wants it all then do the $12.95. I don't know if thats at all possible I don't know maybe it is or isn't but it might make some people think twice about it.


i think that would work if the companies were to merge. without merging you would have people that would say "well i want O&A and the rest of the talk on XM but I want the sports package offered on Sirius" and then it would just get confusing.

[generoso]

I'd love to dump baseball and the country channels and save a few bucks.
whoa there bucko..lets keep the baseball, bring back music lab and dump country...

[SOS]

Has anyone else notice that today is HOO HOO Howies birthday. Its on imdb.com


Yes, but only by reading off topic.
Happy Birthday, Howard Stern (http://www.wackbag.com/showthread.php?t=58819) - Smokezilla

[Freese]

whoa there bucko..lets keep the baseball, bring back music lab and dump country...

No, I mean choice selection on an individual basis, not on xm as a whole. If I could dump the channels I don't listen to and save a few bucks that would be handy

[me in canada]

I think the prob is reception

I like xm but if the boys ever leave

my xm is out the window and i will get a sirius

It drives me crazy how much better peoples sirius s work compaired to my xm

[DREW]

No, I mean choice selection on an individual basis, not on xm as a whole. If I could dump the channels I don't listen to and save a few bucks that would be handy


It aint happenin, and cant drop country, what truckers gonna listen to? Myself , I listen to 150 or 202 only

[rowdy]

I think the prob is reception

I like xm but if the boys ever leave

my xm is out the window and i will get a sirius

It drives me crazy how much better peoples sirius s work compaired to my xm
are you using factory installed or aftermarket? My aftermarket stuff rarely has a problem. Ive had friends tell me the GM installed stuff drops signal alot.

[Mike]

This is interesting to me because I was just talking to my Father-In-Law about this.

My Father-In-Law just got a new Honda Ridgeline a year ago or so. It cam pre installed with XM, and they gave him "X" amount of months free. He liked it, but was unsure what he was going to do.

One day, his XM just shut off. His Free trial ended.

So what you say?

He didnt get a letter or a call or anything saying "You Free Trial is about to end ... HERE IS HOW TO STAY SUBSCRIBED"

To me, that is just BAD BUSINESS!!! It's retarded. It's like they arent even trying. I mean, sending a letter alone would probabbly ensure more people would retain the service. Sending Two or Three letters would make sense!

[Freese]

So your father in law is to stupid to call a 1-800 number?

[chickenhauler]

XM's churn rate is mentioned in the article you quoted. XM loses roughly twice as many subs as Sirius loses each quarter.

The scary part is that XM has recently begun losing twice as many old subs each quarter as it has netted in new subs. Meanwhile, Sirius is only losing half as many as it gains.

For example, in the third quarter of last year, XM gained 866,000 new (gross) subs. But 580,000 old subs canceled, leaving them with only 286,000 new (net) subs on paper. In the same quarter, Sirius got 722,000 new subs, but only 281,000 old ones bailed, giving them a net of 441,000, so it gives the impression that they are now kicking XM's ass.

One thing to note: Sirius has NEVER outsold XM. The problem XM keeps having is that a ridiculous number of subscribers bail out each quarter.
The genius that can get XM's subs to stay on board will be the one that saves the sinking ship. XM's marketing is doing their job to pull in new subs. Someone just needs to figure out how to keep them.

I think many of those lost XM subs have gone to Sirius, and here's why-the inbred white trash loves their NASCAR, and XM no longer has it. Take a seat at any large truckstop and start talking trash about any random NASCAR driver, and you'll be spitting teeth faster than that poor bastard that got curbstomped in American History X.

I think XM made a grave mistake letting NASCAR go over to Sirius, shoulda dumped Oprah, and a few other garbage shows and FOUND the money to outbid the little doggy co.

Supply and Demand-if you can't supply what the customer wants, the demand goes away.

That said, I am unaware of any logical person who could be entertained by LISTENING to a car race-they're boring enough on TV, and that's pretty bad.

Many old folks (my stupid parents included) are scared of new technology, and this may be a great untapped market for XM if they only realize it. I got my parents an XM SKYFI for Xmas several years ago, and they didn't understand (dumbass's) how to hook it up, so I did it for them, 4 months later. Within days, the thing became attached to them, they took it from the house, to the car, to the motorhome, and bought a boombox, too.

Many of their friends hadn't even heard of satellite radio, much less listened to the programming (old farts love their country and bluegrass). The thing that sold their friends the most was that they were able to get English broadcasts and news all the way to the tip of Baja Mexico. After them and their old fart friends returned, I got payed many beers and many good dinners to do 15 minute install jobs on several motorhomes.:icon_mrgr

[fkent484]

I don't think it is time to panic yet. I also think XM does have it correct by shifting their concentration to pre-installed units in new cars.

Think back to when the 3rd brake light was introduced in the early 80's. There was a fad back then to go get an aftermarket 3rd brake light installed.

Within a few years every new car on the road had them and there were very few older cars left that did not have them.

Thats what we have going on. Americans typically buy a new car every 3-4 years. XM has been around almost that long. When the next car is purchased it will likely have satellite radio pre-installed.

Because XM had the foresite to go after the big boys it will more than likely be pre-installed with XM compatible equipment.

XM needs to worry about the portable market next and they have a much better jump on technology than Sirius.

[canadave]

Sound quality and losing NASCAR. These are the 2 things that will haunt XM this year.

Say what you want about NASCAR but it drove a lot of subs and people in general to XM and satellite radio. These people seem to have endless amounts of money to make sure they are "NASCAR connected" as much as possible.

XM also needs to shift the focus back to music and get the sound quality fixed. How many people really have XM because they want out of market baseball?

If they didn't have O&A I would really question wich service to buy. Doggy has better music if they could get thier DJ's to shut the fuck up.

[Freese]

Who the fuck listens to NASCAR on the radio?

"They turn left"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"Oooooooooooh a crash"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"Look at them pit!"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh another crash"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"They turn left again"
"Your winner is ......"

There I just did your NASCAR broadcast for every race.

[d0uche_n0zzle]

SIRI backhandedly made a deal with NASCAR, thus then, driving the price through the freaking roof. When NASCAR asked XM what their counter offer was they didn't go as high as SIRI.

[7cent]

does anyone think XM has gotten hurt by their 'superior' hardware? I feel burnt by my Myfi purchase...It was way too expensive, and has too many problems..

It is not a portable unit for me because I do not get a signal outside, it sucks at the gym way too bulky..This is the 2nd Myfi I've owned...Both of them get this ringing problem when listening with ear phones..Pain in the ass when you are trying to work out because you have to play with the connection to get it to go away... I also can not record when it is cloudy because I lose the signal..

I would have canceled my sub and gotten an ipod if it wasn't for 202 and 53..

[N.Y. Johnny]

Sound quality and losing NASCAR. These are the 2 things that will haunt XM this year.

Say what you want about NASCAR but it drove a lot of subs and people in general to XM and satellite radio. These people seem to have endless amounts of money to make sure they are "NASCAR connected" as much as possible.

XM also needs to shift the focus back to music and get the sound quality fixed. How many people really have XM because they want out of market baseball?

If they didn't have O&A I would really question wich service to buy. Doggy has better music if they could get thier DJ's to shut the fuck up.




I've mentioned Sound Quality. I also believe that the SQ has gone down. I know some folks will say that it hasn't and refuse to think it has. I think its not where it used to be and for the music channels thats bad for someone that likes to listen on there.

I do not agree with Sirius having the better music overall, i've heard both (Sirius from Dish Network) and I think XM has better selection, but XM does a fine job of going backwards here by axing something like Music Lab and giving us another Top 20 Hits Station. :icon_evil

[Jerry1]

Sound quality and losing NASCAR. These are the 2 things that will haunt XM this year.

Say what you want about NASCAR but it drove a lot of subs and people in general to XM and satellite radio. These people seem to have endless amounts of money to make sure they are "NASCAR connected" as much as possible.

XM also needs to shift the focus back to music and get the sound quality fixed. How many people really have XM because they want out of market baseball?

If they didn't have O&A I would really question wich service to buy. Doggy has better music if they could get thier DJ's to shut the fuck up.

Well, losing NASCAR will hurt them. Alot of people, especially down south, follow it and the NASCAR channel was a good way to keep updated on events and such.

The Baseball is a good pickup cause alot of drivers(both truckers and others) do follow baseball and can listen to games while on the road. Also on the road they really don't have to worry about losing the game cause they lost the frequency in a certain area.
One of my friends just got a new Chevy Impala with XM installed and drove down to Florida. He told me the XM was great for the drive and is looking to keep it.

[shadowofanubis6]

XM's problem at least when i had it was the music channels (which is a huge part of people wanting to listen to commercial free radio). I always looked through the rock stations but the problem was, you can rarely ever hear a song that you've heard before. I dont like how fm radio keeps playign the same stuff over and over again.... but there is a huge gap between that and playing obscure songs over and over again. All XM needs is one station of each genre devoted to commercial'ish rock/rap/pop/ etc... and put the obscure shit on the rest. This is why i canceled.

[Freese]

Or you're just a demanding cunt that is so used to getting what he wants that he could never possibly be pleased.

Maybe.

[N.Y. Johnny]

Well, losing NASCAR will hurt them. Alot of people, especially down south, follow it and the NASCAR channel was a good way to keep updated on events and such.

The Baseball is a good pickup cause alot of drivers(both truckers and others) do follow baseball and can listen to games while on the road. Also on the road they really don't have to worry about losing the game cause they lost the frequency in a certain area.
One of my friends just got a new Chevy Impala with XM installed and drove down to Florida. He told me the XM was great for the drive and is looking to keep it.



Baseball is my deal. That would be the back breaker for me. I know O&A are alot easier to find somewhere like on Audible.com and then downloaded to an ipod or something.

If I ever lost LIVE Yankee games I would absolutely have no reason for the XM anymore. Plus what I love about it and some folks have posted before is that sometimes when your team is on the road you get the other side's feed and thats gravy for me.

[Freese]

If I ever lost LIVE Yankee games I would absolutely have no reason for the XM anymore. Plus what I love about it and some folks have posted before is that sometimes when your team is on the road you get the other side's feed and thats gravy for me.

The second NHL goes I just might drop XM myself...wait. No I won't. But it sure is nice getting games from other markets. It's weird listening to a San Jose vs. L.A. Kings game.

[canadave]

Funny Freese,

Travel west of Toronto and you will see a different world. You will find a lot more NASCAR bumper stickers and other stuff. My point was NASCAR fans are very loyal and will spend money to follow it with a lot less persuasion. 15 bucks a month is nothing to be able to stay current. I am a fan, went to 4 races last year but I never found 144 to be much use until race day if I couldn't watch it. Through the week it was mostly junk.

I have 3 XM's and the only thing that really ticks me off is sound quality, ya the music isn't always the best but I live with it.

Now if they take away O&A (piss them off or the stupid merger shit happens and causes it) and all 3 subs go bye bye.

[Just Joe]

XM needs to hire some better program directors for their alt rock channels. 53 is the only one that gets its genre and feeds it properly. They play everything punk and are not afraid to throw in the big names like Green Day and the Ramones in to the mix to appeal to more people and sandwich them between some ska and rockabilly as well as local bands. The XM alt channels can't compare to Sirius's Left of Center channel that actually plays indie rock that people listen to. The whole Fred, Ethel, and Lucy branding sucks ass and those stations blow. How about putting out more distinctive alt rock channels?

[westben2002]

my girlfriend has a sirius in here mazda tribute built in, and she hasn't renewed her sub, but she still gets the service

[Freese]

I just don't see the appeal of listening to someone turning left. I'd rather watch it on TV.

[wes mantooth]

XM needs to hire some better program directors for their alt rock channels. 53 is the only one that gets its genre and feeds it properly. They play everything punk and are not afraid to throw in the big names like Green Day and the Ramones in to the mix to appeal to more people and sandwich them between some ska and rockabilly as well as local bands. The XM alt channels can't compare to Sirius's Left of Center channel that actually plays indie rock that people listen to. The whole Fred, Ethel, and Lucy branding sucks ass and those stations blow. How about putting out more distinctive alt rock channels?


:clap: :clap: yep.

[abudabit]

So your father in law is to stupid to call a 1-800 number?

That isn't how it works Freese. A human voice call to action is a lot more effective than a little digital screen reminder.


Telephone calls > Letters > Emails > Digital screen 1 liner

Although letters are less annoying than telephone calls, and they give the person more room to think about it instead of panicking and saying no. XM should send snail mail letters in resume paper envelopes with a reminder and instructions for subscribing.

They need more proprietary talk channels, too. Talk is compelling, unique content and doesn't compete with IPods.

[N.Y. Johnny]

That isn't how it works Freese. A human voice call to action is a lot more effective than a little digital screen reminder.


Telephone calls > Letters > Emails > Digital screen 1 liner

Although letters are less annoying than telephone calls, and they give the person more room to think about it instead of panicking and saying no. XM should send snail mail letters in resume paper envelopes with a reminder and instructions for subscribing.

They need more proprietary talk channels, too. Talk is compelling, unique content and doesn't compete with IPods.[


:clap:

I know outside of the sports forum here on WB some people might not know that during this Summer's FIFA World Cup, XM created their Channel 148.

This was absolutely one of the finest channels for sports talk that XM itself created and it was very well recieved and had alot of new people calling in all the time. Its popularity was being heard as new people followed the tournament.
Well as soon as the tournament ended XM didn't bother to put it back on. It was very well done and I wish they'd have continued it. Channel 148 is an example of something XM created in house themselves and it was working well.

I know this is the way to get listeners. Things you won't find on Ipods and MP3 players. Music I don't think is the way for Satellite Radio to go. If they're banking on Music to be the cash cow then this ship is going to sink quick, as I don't care what anyone says the Ipod is beating the hell out of the XM for music.