Who will win Super Bowl XLI?

[Ol'BloodyBottom]

Who will win Super Bowl XLI?

January 23, 2007

As I discussed last week, there's a system that I've been using for the past 16 years that has correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner 14 times. It involves 12 predictors that each successfully predict the Super Bowl winner roughly 55 to 70 percent of the time, but taken together they work even better. Last year, for the first time in those 16 years, we had to go to the tie-breaker when the categories were tied 6-6 between the Steelers and Seahawks ( Can you predict the Super Bowl winner?).

The twelve categories are broken into five defensive statistics, four offensive and three overall. The winning percentage for each of the categories is based on how often that category favored the eventual Super Bowl winner. The chart below shows all of the percentages.

Now let's look at Super Bowl XLI:

Category Winning Percentage Team with Advantage
Rushing Yards / Attempt .550 Colts
Rushing Yards .550 Bears
Opponent Net Passing Yards .550 Colts
Points Scored .588 Tie
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt .600 Bears
Fewer Net Passing Yards .600 Bears
Turnover Differential .625 Bears
Opponent Rushing Yards .625 Bears
Point Differential .663 Bears
Regular Season Record .688 Bears
Opponent Total Yards / Game .700 Bears
Points Allowed .713 Bears

The Bears take the last eight categories, which are the best predictors, all at 60% or better. Of those eight, five are defensive, which confirms the adage: Defense wins championships. Overall, the Bears take nine categories and the Colts only two, with one tie. There have been 18 occasions where the system favored one of the teams with nine or more categories. That team has won 15 times.

The system leans significantly towards the Bears winning their first Super Bowl in 21 years.

I want to give credit to Jim Henzler from my days over at STATS, Inc for helping me develop the system. Jim, who also collaborated with Bill James on his book Win Shares, came up with the main elements of this system back in the early 90's.

[askewcore]

Did you take into account strength of schedule at all though? The Bears got six games against the Packers,Vikings and Lions. I dont need to tell you theyre all garbage and the Bears would have been equally served from playing the Rhein Fire or Scotland Claymores. Not bashing the Bears as I agree that defense almost always has an advantage in big games and they obviously have the stronger D. If Indy's defense can stop the run like they have through the playoffs, it should be an interesting game. I think Indy will win, but I'm rooting for Chicago just so all those people who shat on the NFC all year will look silly.

[Ol'BloodyBottom]

14 out of 16 is not bad.
GB ended up 500
Seattle had an easier schedule last year
Look at the Colts schedule hasnt been so difficult
I tend to beleive that the colts defense is more like the season than the playoffs.

[Etherfiend]

there's a better system to determine who will win: ask Opie who he picks and put all your money on the other team.


i missed who Fez picked...anyone know?

[askewcore]

I tend to beleive that the colts defense is more like the season than the playoffs.

I kinda agree with you. Although Bob Sanders realls helps them alot. It should be an interesting game, the Bears Wide Outs should be able to stretch the Colts secondary with their speed. Like I said, I'm not bashing the Bears I was just wondering if you considered SOS.

[Tax Kuntz]

I say Colts 45 Bears 20

[burky79]

nice system. math is fun.
have to look into that for old SB's and do some number crunchin.

I say Bears 39 Colts 36.
close game defensive battle.
Bears D is awesome, Payton is amazing.
He will have at least two passing TD's.
One rushing TD.
but the foot of Robbie has been under rated all year.
he is clutch and long.

[Chester'sLiver]

I kinda agree with you. Although Bob Sanders realls helps them alot. It should be an interesting game, the Bears Wide Outs should be able to stretch the Colts secondary with their speed. Like I said, I'm not bashing the Bears I was just wondering if you considered SOS.
I will just say that this makes no sense because the Colts secondary is built on speed and they have a good pass D. The way the Colts were beat up during the season was to power run at them because they are smaller then most offensive lines. Just thought I would add that.

[MJMANDALAY]

The team that scores the most points.
I watch for the comercials.

[Ol'BloodyBottom]

nice system. math is fun.
have to look into that for old SB's and do some number crunchin.

I say Bears 39 Colts 36.
close game defensive battle.
Bears D is awesome, Payton is amazing.
He will have at least two passing TD's.
One rushing TD.
but the foot of Robbie has been under rated all year.
he is clutch and long.
Wow this is a defensive battle? What is a shoot out score going to look like. El Oh El

[Ol'BloodyBottom]

I kinda agree with you. Although Bob Sanders realls helps them alot. It should be an interesting game, the Bears Wide Outs should be able to stretch the Colts secondary with their speed. Like I said, I'm not bashing the Bears I was just wondering if you considered SOS.
I know your not bashing the Bears. Bob Sanders does help them out ALOT but the facts are the defense is not that good and with them playing well in the playoffs could make them think they are better than they are considering everyone thinks Grossman sucks. If they get the hype into their head that they are going to crush the Bears offense it could backfire...just like last years Bears team.
Also what is SOS cant think straight?

[ih8Uboo-boo]

The trend is that Defense beats Offense in the Super Bowl The Bears have the better D' and should be able to move the ball and put up enough points while they are on offense.

Right now I like the Bears plus the points.

[OandA_Chris]

The team that scores the most points.
I watch for the comercials.

I do too. But i have to give it to the Colts.

[jpc165]

Whats Opies pick?

Just take the opposite.

[J. PETERSON]

Sorry I have a

MESSAGE BOARD PSYCHIC
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Bears 21, Colts 17

and I know that because those are my numbers in the office pool.

[DeltaPin]

Colts

[rahrah]

i heard its supposed to pour in miami next weekend, that would be good for the bears

I think if Indy can put up 24 points they will win, I dont think the bears can score consistently enough to go blow for blow with indy

[RobeSoup&Tears]

Colts

[Sct Ptersns Twn]

Pittsburgh 21-10

[Ol'BloodyBottom]

Read the article not who do you think will win but it says who will win. Not my prediction some stat nerd

[Bunny™]

Pittsburgh 21-10

Oilers 36-31

[NotSoFast]

I say Bears 39 Colts 36.
close game defensive battle.

No, a "close, defensive battle" would be more like 9-6 or 7-3. When both teams score more than 5 touchdowns each, its nowhere near a defensive battle. That's a defensive shutdown.


I say Colts 34 Bears 24

[Bud8Weiser]

Colts

[peopleselbow]

Bears

[PDOT]

a black coach :icon_mrgr

[bigbill]

a black coach :icon_mrgr

:icon_lol: :icon_lol: :icon_lol:

way to bring back the funny

[tar_baby]

The system leans significantly towards the Bears winning their first Super Bowl in 21 years.

does it?

[Chester'sLiver]

does it?
Apparently, they shouldn't even play the game I mean stats never lie.....:icon_lol:

Colts 31 Bears 17

[Ol'BloodyBottom]

Apparently, they shouldn't even play the game I mean stats never lie.....:icon_lol:

Colts 31 Bears 17
Yea if all we did was read newspapers and watch TV the colts will crush

Bears 64
Colts 4

Grossman 24-32 326 yds 5 TD's

Headline
Grossman sacked twice in endzone for safeties almost loses the game.

[JeepJeep]

Colts 24 Bears 20 ... Grossman gets picked off on the final drive

[tar_baby]

if i were a bears fan id be worried...i mean with grossman back there calling the shots...baaaaaaaaaaad news

[Ol'BloodyBottom]

if i were a bears fan id be worried...i mean with grossman back there calling the shots...baaaaaaaaaaad news
Wish you were back in the innercity with your internship.....besides what do you know you watch the lions and your mind is messed up

[Aizazzle]

I predict the Colts win it but I could really care less

[tar_baby]

i havent seen to many ******* up here in michigan..its been kinda nice

and u know the bears are going to lose...i mean u got to the super bowl...its more than most can say...so congrats on that at least

[Ol'BloodyBottom]

U understand Matt Millen doesnt run the Bears right?

[tar_baby]

si si pedro

take satisfaction that u guys made it to the big game....though it does suck to get there after all these years and then lose...just sayin...

[Ol'BloodyBottom]

I guess it is a feeling you will never know....just sayin

[tar_baby]

so that raises the question....is it better to get there and lose...after u got ur hopes up and are sooooo excited...uve got the party planned, you've been talking about it with all of your friends and co-workers..."finally! after all these years we make it to the super bowl..this is OUR year! blah blah blah"....

or to not go at all

[Ol'BloodyBottom]

so that raises the question....is it better to get there and lose...after u got ur hopes up and are sooooo excited...uve got the party planned, you've been talking about it with all of your friends and co-workers..."finally! after all these years we make it to the super bowl..this is OUR year! blah blah blah"....

or to not go at all
I dont know go back to the beginning of the season
http://www.wackbag.com/showthread.php?t=50573&highlight=lions
and look how long you suffered