FF #1 Pick - The Unofficial Opie and Anthony Message Board

ih8Uboo-boo · 08-10-2006, 12:53 AM

Just found out that I have the #1 pick in the draft. There are 3 options worth considering: Larry Johnson, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Shaun Alexander. All 3 of them have things that can hurt them.

Larry Johnson
Losing FB Richardson, T Roaf & G/T Welbourn are going to hurt a little but I think that Herm will still be feeding him the ball... A Lot.

LaDanian Tomlinson
Phillip Rivers is now starting at QB replacing, team will stack the line until Rivers proves that he can force teams to play them honest (a la McGahee last season)

Shaun Alexander
The recent trend of Super Bowl losers tanking the following season is a large concern. But they do play in the weakest division in the NFL

I think that its either LT or LJ.

Who would you take #1 overall???

Smokezilla · 08-10-2006, 12:58 AM

I'd take Edgerrin James. . . he's going to be playing in what could be a loaded offense in that same weak-ass NFC Western division that Seattle's in. Tomlinson has some type of neck injury right now, doesn't he (not sure where I heard that. . . )? LJ isn't going to be much a threat this year, I don't believe. Sean Alexander is up for a post-SupaBowl letdown this year.

Then again, I could be wrong, too. I don't know shit!

Kid Brock · 08-10-2006, 01:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smokezilla

I'd take Edgerrin James. . . he's going to be playing in what could be a loaded offense in that same weak-ass NFC Western division that Seattle's in. Tomlinson has some type of neck injury right now, doesn't he (not sure where I heard that. . . )? LJ isn't going to be much a threat this year, I don't believe. Sean Alexander is up for a post-SupaBowl letdown this year.

Then again, I could be wrong, too. I don't know shit!:action-sm

You apparently do not.

Smokezilla · 08-10-2006, 01:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VegasBrock

You apparently do not.

Ouch. . . that was hurtful, Sir. . . and meanspirited.

Kyle · 08-10-2006, 01:18 AM

First off, I'd rule Alexander out. He's not the receiving threat the other two are, and I'd be a little wary of investing that much in a Seahawks player this year. They seem poised for a big letdown to me. Don't get me wrong. I'm not advocating avoiding Alexander. After Johnson and Tomlinson are off the board, you have to take him, but the other two seem better choices to me.

That leaves LT and LJ. It's very close. I think Larry Johnson plays in a more stable offense, and when in doubt with RBs, I'd go with the guy with the less wear and tear on his legs which is LJ. But either's a great choice. Slight edge to Johnson, though.

rahrah · 08-10-2006, 01:29 AM

Herm worries me w/r/t LJ - can't not take him after the 2nd half of last year he had though

unfortunalty it is of no concern to me since i pick 11th in my upcoming draft

ih8Uboo-boo · 08-10-2006, 01:29 AM

i forgot to mention, I am leaning towards LJ...

BeltOfScotch · 08-10-2006, 03:12 AM

I think the clear choice is Alexander or Johnson. Tomlinson is close to being in the conversation but the big concerns about Rivers, in my opinion, should take him out of a #1 discussion.

Alexander is consistently good and he's getting better every year, look at the last four years:

2002 - 1175 yards, 4.0YPC, 16TDs
2003 - 1435 yards, 4.4YPC, 14TDs
2004 - 1696 yards, 4.8YPC, 16TDs
2005 - 1880 yards, 5.1YPC, 27TDs

His carries have increased every year which in the abstract would explain the yardage increase, but his yards per carry has obviously gone up every year also.

With LJ, you really only have 9 games to look at, but those 9 games were just absolutely sick. If he comes close to keeping that kind of pace up, 2000+ yards and 25 TDs is the kind of season he could put together. If I had the number 1 pick, it would be very hard to pass up that kind of potential. However, as others have noted the Chiefs have lost their tackles and you have to wonder if this was just an amazing 1 year stretch.

To me, if I was picking for someone else, I would pick LJ because if he does have that huge season and I passed on it, the person would hate me forever. But, picking for myself, when you have that number 1 pick you just can't screw it up, which to me means taking Alexander, the consistent greatness makes him the safest pick.

weakside · 08-10-2006, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeltOfScotch

2002 - 1175 yards, 4.0YPC, 16TDs
2003 - 1435 yards, 4.4YPC, 14TDs
2004 - 1696 yards, 4.8YPC, 16TDs
2005 - 1880 yards, 5.1YPC, 27TDs

This is all you need to know. Alexander is the clear number one pick.

LT is second with LJ being third. I think Larry Johnson has a lot of talent and if he was there for me at the third pick I would take him but he still has a lot to prove. No position takes more of a beating than the RB so I would like to see what his numbers look like after a full season before I anoint him to be the #1 choice.

Kid Brock · 08-10-2006, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smokezilla

Ouch. . . that was hurtful, Sir. . . and meanspirited.

Sorry fella.

The Sarge · 08-10-2006, 12:57 PM

What about Brian Westbrook?

He actually did good for me last year.

Wrecktum · 08-10-2006, 01:20 PM

I picked up payton manning then i picked up willie parker i go for consistant and rarely get injured i find that is the best way to play FF even if i dont come in first im allways ranked pritty high

Aizazzle · 08-10-2006, 02:24 PM

L.T because the Chargers are going to run the ball more because Rivers is young and they might not want to put too much pressure on him. Larry Johnson has lost Willie Roaf one of the best Tackles in all of the NFL. Also Alexander has lost Steve Hutchinson. So in my opinion the logical choice is LaDanian Tomilinson

Ol'BloodyBottom · 08-10-2006, 02:31 PM

LT without a doubt. He played well every year and he can catch the best out of them all. Rivers will be better then Brees. LJ has a terrible coach and an aging offense and Alexander is not going to have a year like last. Lossing Hutchinson really hurts. Go LT

invisible76 · 08-10-2006, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aizazzle

L.T because the Chargers are going to run the ball more because Rivers is young and they might not want to put too much pressure on him. Larry Johnson has lost Willie Roaf one of the best Tackles in all of the NFL. Also Alexander has lost Steve Hutchinson. So in my opinion the logical choice is LaDanian Tomilinson

Definitely LT. Lets not forget that a (kind of) rookie QB is going to feel a LOT of pressure in the pocket and look for quick outs in the flats for relief. ANd there is no better receiving running back than LT

robinquivers · 08-10-2006, 08:30 PM

Peyton Manning

generoso · 08-10-2006, 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robinquivers

Peyton Manning

Yea what he said....There should not even be another pick....

BeltOfScotch · 08-11-2006, 12:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robinquivers

Peyton Manning

Ugh, unless your league gives points for completed passes, 6 pts for passing TDs (some only give 4) and gives big bonuses for 300+ yard passing games, there is absolutely zero reason to draft Peyton first.

My yahoo league is 1 pt. for every 25 yards passing, gives 6 pts for passing TDs and a 3 pt. bonus for a 300 yard passing day. By most accounts, this is relatively QB friendly scoring. Under that format, Carson Palmer and Tom Brady both outscored Peyton last year and Hasselbeck and Eli were only 30 points back (which amounts to less than 2 points per week).

ih8Uboo-boo · 08-11-2006, 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeltOfScotch

Ugh, unless your league gives points for completed passes, 6 pts for passing TDs (some only give 4) and gives big bonuses for 300+ yard passing games, there is absolutely zero reason to draft Peyton first.

My yahoo league is 1 pt. for every 25 yards passing, gives 6 pts for passing TDs and a 3 pt. bonus for a 300 yard passing day. By most accounts, this is relatively QB friendly scoring. Under that format, Carson Palmer and Tom Brady both outscored Peyton last year and Hasselbeck and Eli were only 30 points back (which amounts to less than 2 points per week).

I love when someone takes Manning early (Top 7 picks), because a better RB would fall to me than should.

Our league is QB friendly. We get

5% pass yds
6pts for TDs
2 pt bonus for TD's 40 - 74 yds
4 pt bonus for TD's 75+ yds
2 pts bonus for every 100 yds over 300 yds
-2 pts for INT

Manning was the 5th best player and the 3rd best QB.

In my league where we use the same system, and get 1 pt per catch he was the 8th best player.

Dick Whiskey · 08-11-2006, 01:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aizazzle

L.T because the Chargers are going to run the ball more because Rivers is young and they might not want to put too much pressure on him. Larry Johnson has lost Willie Roaf one of the best Tackles in all of the NFL. Also Alexander has lost Steve Hutchinson. So in my opinion the logical choice is LaDanian Tomilinson

Finally found something we can agree on. And to all those with no.1 picks and thinking about taking Shaun Alexander, just remember this... MADDEN JINX! The Seahawks are doomed.

Kid Brock · 08-11-2006, 12:18 PM

My league is weighted towards the RB's. I fully expect them to go at least the first 8 picks. Of course I pick 10th out of 12 so hopefully someone like Steven jackson or Caddilac Williams falls to me.

weakside · 08-11-2006, 12:34 PM

A few more things on this topic…

Remember that the best friend of a RB is a good run-blocking O-line. But his next best friend is a good passing game. The Chargers have neither.

Everyone is correct, because the Chargers passing game is going to be way down this year they are going to run more, a lot more. I know that, you know that, but so does every team they are going to play.

Defensive coordinators are not stupid. LT is going to have to run against a staked D-line almost every single down. Combine that with the fact the O-line is average at best and you got trouble. Gates will open up the defense a little bit it won't make the same impact as a safety having to double up on a great WR. Also, since Gates will take away some of LT's touchdowns when they are in the Red Zone he will probably hurt LT as much as he helps him.

This is not to say LT is going to be a bust. If you have the second pick in your draft you should definitely take him. Despite all of the things against him he will still have a great year because he is in fact the best RB in the NFL. But in Fantasy Football you don't care who is the best, you only care about who will give you stats week after week.

Because of all this Alexander is again the clear the number one choice. Need more evidence? Remember that he is always option number one on the team, he always gets carries near the goal line, he has a great O-line even with the loss of Hutchinson (Womack is a damn good guard), and the Seahawks have an extremely easy schedule.

(By the way, Larry Johnson is still your third pick and maybe is even a fourth pick depending on your feelings about the Redskins and Clinton Portis. LJ still needs to prove he can put up stats for an entire season.)

BeltOfScotch · 08-11-2006, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dick Whiskey

And to all those with no.1 picks and thinking about taking Shaun Alexander, just remember this... MADDEN JINX!

This is the best argument I've heard for not taking Alexander first, and I'm not kidding.

Aizazzle · 08-17-2006, 05:26 PM

What a load of help we were did you decide who it is going to be?

I say that because of the voting results are pretty tight

GorilaBoyNorton · 08-17-2006, 05:33 PM

go with Larry Johnson, whenever he scores a touchdown he does that Jay-Z Roc-a-Fella hand thingy, it's awesome, draft him asap