Fantasy Baseball Strategy

Discussion in 'Fantasy Leagues' started by Absolutely, Feb 17, 2011.

  1. Absolutely

    Absolutely Self-Heavy Donator

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    Not a ton of people make it to this sub-forum, but I figured I'd start a strategy thread.
    For those who want to reveal their magic, or get some thoughts.

    Last season I got destroyed basically in all pitching categories.
    The gaps between me and the top spot:
    -350 Wins
    -300 Saves
    -275 Ks
    -225 Holds (I had 4 points in holds somehow)

    So I did a Mock where I drafted nothing but pitching in the first 5 rounds to see what happened offensively.

    Roy Halladay
    Tim Lincecum
    Jon Lester
    CC Sabathia
    Justin Verlander

    Those were my top 5

    I ended up with

    C - John Buck
    1B - Paul Konerko
    2B - Brandon Phillips
    SS - Jhonny Peralta
    3B - Casey McGehee
    OF - Andre Ethier
    OF - Delmon Young
    OF - Vernon Wells
    B - Pablo Sandoval
    B -
    B - Brian Roberts
    B - Ike Davis
    B - Alfonso Soriano
    B - Ryan Ludwick
    B - Alex Gonzalez

    C - Matt Thornton
    C - Brad Lidge
    C - Kevin Gregg

    P - Edinson Volquez
    P - Phil Hughes
    P - Gio Gonzalez


    It's not Pujols, Cano, Zimmerman, but wonder if all SPs first would be worth it.
    It's not a horrible offense, but I also finished near last in Hits and Runs.

    Pretty dirty pitching staff though
  2. Pigdango

    Pigdango Wackbag's Man of Gold Donator

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    Do a mock with sp 3 of first 5 picks. I think you'll like how it turns out
  3. Absolutely

    Absolutely Self-Heavy Donator

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    The other thing that's tough in mocks is, the biggest group is 12.
    Our league is like 17. There's waiver wars for the likes if Adam Kennedy.

    Basically average killed me as well, Adam Dunn...
  4. Mother Shucker

    Mother Shucker I'm over here now.

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    I will give you one hint. You need a decent pen. They collect points without burning innings. Last year, I do not think you had ONE reliever.
  5. Absolutely

    Absolutely Self-Heavy Donator

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    I had 2 Holds...
    I did draft Luke Gregerson, who had 40 Holds. I don't know what I did with him, but I think I dropped him right away.

    I'm embarrassed that I drafted Lohse and Marquis.
    Though I did get Mat Latos and Ricky Romero in Round 20s
  6. JMCC

    JMCC Registered User

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    Since I joined the O and A Party Rock league 3 years ago, I finished 2nd, 1st and 2nd, so wouldn't you like to know :action-sm

    In all seriousness though, it all depends on what type of league you in, what are the cats?

    For example, David Wright is a streaky player, so while he's perfect for a roto league, he becomes a huge headache in a H2H league.

    A points base league is a different beast all together, every league has different points value, but I would say that PA/AB are really important in any points league.
  7. Pigdango

    Pigdango Wackbag's Man of Gold Donator

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    17 teams is pretty hard core. I do a 10 team H2H league, although we have a kind of unique set up - everyone plays. You can mark guys injured, but there are no reserves. 19 man Active Roster, which most people set up as:

    1 C
    2 1B
    2 2B
    1 SS
    2 3B
    5 OF
    5 SP
    1 RP

    What's great about our league is the championship is usually won at the draft, but you can almost completely fuck your draft and still make up ground during the season.

    The winning formula almost always involves drafting 3 SP's among your first 7 picks, but it's surprising how infrequently this happens. Last year's winner only picked 2 SP's in his first 7, but the 2 were Joe Lester and Cliff Lee. In between those guys he got Joey Votto in the 5th round.

    I finished in 2nd LY, following the same formula but front loading with hitters, with extremely mixed results:
    1 - Longoria
    2 - Miguel Cabrera (I was drafting 9th)
    3 - Aaron Hill
    4 - Grady Sizemore
    5 - Jake Peavy
    6 - Tommy Hanson
    7 - Matt Cain

    I was able to deal Hill early in the year for Verlander, which was the only way I could recover from that clusterbomb I dropped on myself in rounds 3-5. If I'd have stuck with my strategy I would have drafted Wainwright in the 3rd and CC in the 4th - and I would have won the championship.

    Speaking from a H2H standpoint, David Wright is a cunt.
  8. Absolutely

    Absolutely Self-Heavy Donator

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    It's all luck I'm convinced.
    You just have to get that 1-2 big score, like getting Carlos Gonzalez in the 7th or 8th last year. Not that that pick is "lucky", but you need to find those guys.

    I've been doing Mocks out of boredom, switching it up strategy wise, and every time I look at my team and think "That's pretty good"

    You can see how having Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Kemp, and Dan Uggla could lead to a monster offense... Still getting pitchers like Gallardo, Latos, Cole Hamels, etc later.
    But then you see Halladay/Lincecum/Lee/Wainwright plus other bats later like Morales, McGehee, and Delmon Young.

    The good news is either way I do it, it'll be wrong.
  9. luckie1710

    luckie1710 Registered User

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    I like to get one stud pitcher in my first five or six rounds. You can get decent closers later on in the draft. A bunch of closers should still be avaiable around the 150th pick or so. See Chris perez, Axford, Cordero, Nathan etc.

    As for the starters. You could grab a bunch of the middle tier guys with some upside - see Dan Hudson, Scherzer, Marcum, Brett Anderson etc.

    That's the mix you have to try in mocks.

    Do you rank players according to tier's? I do that and it seems to work for me.
  10. Absolutely

    Absolutely Self-Heavy Donator

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    The problem with Mocks is that they only go up to 12 teams.
    50% are on auto-pick.
    1 guy is there just to fuck with you (Ben Sheets first round)
  11. Mother Shucker

    Mother Shucker I'm over here now.

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    Yeah, mock drafts suck a dead dog's dick.

    It aint all luck bro. Look at the last five years or so in our league history. Carl always does well with junk.
  12. luckie1710

    luckie1710 Registered User

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    Where are you doing your mocks?
  13. Absolutely

    Absolutely Self-Heavy Donator

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    I've tried Yahoo and ESPN.
    And Mockdraftcentral
  14. luckie1710

    luckie1710 Registered User

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    I can and have set up 15 and 20 team mocks on MDC.
  15. SurlyTruckDrivr

    SurlyTruckDrivr You've got a friend in WDTv2.0

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    not strategy here, but a question. Was offered M Stanton for Morneau in a long term keeper 8 players. 5x5 roto 12 teams. Need OF help, only potential OF keeper is Sizemore and, ya know....
    Keepers right now are

    Wieters
    Morneau
    Dunn
    Andrus
    Sandoval
    Strasburg
    Hanson
    Beckett

    in building mode
  16. Absolutely

    Absolutely Self-Heavy Donator

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    I like Stanton a lot.
    Bill James has huge projections for him...
    38 HRs, 104 RBIS, 85 Runs, .911 OPS

    ESPN's Fantasy stuff has 36/94 with 70 Runs
    But then I've seen stuff lower.

    So it's almost close to Morneau numbers without head-injuries. Plus 1B is sort of deep.
  17. luckie1710

    luckie1710 Registered User

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    I like Stanton a lot too. As long as your playing for the future. Now would be the time to make that deal. Stanton got hurt and will be out a couple of weeks. Morneau scares me with the head injuries. Plus you already have a first baseman with Dunn.
  18. SurlyTruckDrivr

    SurlyTruckDrivr You've got a friend in WDTv2.0

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    I made the trade, Stanton for Morneau straight up
    definitely rebuilding this year
    gonna try to get Alvarez next
    may throw Dunn out to see what he could get me, I can always play Sandoval at first
    he'll probably eat his way over there eventually anyway, though he did lose like 40 lbs this offseason
    Beckett too, though he got popped in the head with a ball yesterday, plus he will need to pitch to re-establish value
    I feel the same on Morneau with the injuries
    I'll lose out on ave, but in 2-3 years, maybe sooner, Stanton's power numbers will be well worth it
  19. Absolutely

    Absolutely Self-Heavy Donator

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    My 2011 team.
    Showed it to a friend of mine and he replied, you have no offense and your pitching is really bad.

    Not sure I agree on the offense.

    - Pedro Alvarez is capable of big things and Beckham SHOULD bounce back nice.
    - Nelson Cruz/Kemp/Rios/Werth are all good power-speed guys who should put up some numbers.
    - TULO is a beast
    - Iannetta isn't a bad backup plan if J.P Arencibia totally fails. Iannetta should play a lot more this season, and from 2008-2009 was like a 17HR/60RBI guy, which isn't bad for Catcher.

    - I don't like Derek Lee/Justin Smoak, but I waited and waited and waited for 1B.

    C - JP Arencibia/Chris Iannetta
    1B - Derek Lee/Justin Smoak
    2B - Gordon Beckham
    SS - Troy Tulowitszki
    3B - Pedro Alvarez
    OF - Matt Kemp
    OF - Jayson Werth
    OF - Nelson Cruz
    UTIL - Alex Rios

    Pitching I kept waiting and waiting and waiting as well.

    CP - K-Rod
    CP - Valverde

    SPs are iffy. I have some guys who could win 13-14 and K in the 170-180 neighborhood (Dempster, Garza, Chacin, Lilly, Clayton Richardson(?))
    And others who could be good or be worthless like: Westbrook, Porcello, Bedard , Drabeck, McClellan, Wolf

    But then again, I don't think it's crazy to have Wolf or Westbrook win 14ish. Bedard is great when healthy (Never). And Porcello has potential.

    SP - Brett Anderson
    SP - Ryan Dempster
    SP - Matt Garza
    SP - Ted Lilly
    SP - Jhouls Chachin
    SP - Rick Porcello
    SP - Clayton Richard
    SP - Randy Wolf
    SP - Kyle McClellan
    SP - Erik Bedard
    SP - Kyle Drabeck
    SP - Jake Westbrook

    You like your team M.Shucker?
  20. luckie1710

    luckie1710 Registered User

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    How many teams are in your league?

    What did you have 4th - 5th pick?

    Here are a few of your problems. First base is the deepest position and you probably waited to long to grab one. Since DLEE is probably the 15th ranked first baseman. I would have rather grabbed a guy with some upside if you wanted to wait a while see freeman or an ike davis.

    Not crazy about your catching situation either. Farrell has said that Molina will catch Drabek and Morrow. So that cuts into JP's playing time.

    Tulo is a monster. If he stays healthy your set.

    I think Beckham will have a breakout year.

    Alvarez had a monster sept. That should carry over into this season

    Kemp should bounce back with Torre, Bowa and Rhianna gone.

    Not crazy about Werth in the new ballpark. But he is still a top 20 OF.

    If Cruz stays healthy or just plays 140 games. Your set.

    Rios is nice at UT.

    Your team is lacking in SB's. You should get around 90 - 100 SB's with this team.

    Your pitching is shaky. I like Anderson a LOT. But id rather have him as your number 2 starter. Anderson, dempster, lilly and garza should give you nice numbers. Nothing spectacular. Chacin is nice. Porcello could have a bounce back yr. Drabek looks good.
  21. Mother Shucker

    Mother Shucker I'm over here now.

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    17 teams in the league, I think he was second in draft.

    Abs, your team is OK. You have a HUGE problem with back ups. You have NO back up 2b, ss, and 3b. So you will leave points on the board with the games that you don't fill (162 max). And if any of those guys go down.....

    But your core is much better then last year.
  22. Pigdango

    Pigdango Wackbag's Man of Gold Donator

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    I'm drafting 7th. Have no idea what to expect. We're a 10 team Head to Head. People avoided pitching last year and paid the price, so I'm assuming there will be a run this year, especially with the Cardinals' staff developing AIDS.

    I'm projecting:
    1 - Pujols
    2 - CarGo
    3 - Halladay/Cabrera
    4 - Tulo/Han Ram (One guy still thinks this is a ROTO league)
    5 - Longoria/Votto
    6 - Votto/Cabrera/Adrian Gonzalez

    So if my first guess for each team is right, Cabrera will fall to me, which seems ridiculous. Anyone else in a Head to Head league? Could this actually happen just because of a bottle of booze?
  23. Absolutely

    Absolutely Self-Heavy Donator

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    17 Teams, I had pick #2 but hate Hanley (Had him last year too).
    I think Hanley actually fell to like #7 somehow.

    I actually wanted to get Ike Davis, but even with his upside I don't really see anything more than 20/80 out of him.
    And I THINK I can get that with Lee.
    Smoak has upside potential to some degree.

    Catching I personally don't hate that much.
    I play JP when he plays, and sub in Iannetta when he doesn't. Should be easy since the guys he is and isn't catching are known.

    I care about steals to some degree, but not enough to start a guy like Bourne or Coco Crisp everyday. So I think 100+ steals is possible with what I have, and they're better at every other category vs. a "Speed Guy"

    I'm not a huge fan of my pitching, but we'll see.
    We only get points for essenntially for
    Wins +
    Ks +
    Saves +
    Losses -
    BB -
    BSV -
    HLD +

    And other stuff for CG, Shut Outs, ect


    I've already put in waiver requests for scrubby middle infielders who can be 2B/SS, 3B/OF ect.
    I kind of forgot about that as I was drafting SPs in the last rounds like Westbrook, I should have got a guy like Jamey Carrol.
  24. luckie1710

    luckie1710 Registered User

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    Here is a tip for you. Not sure if it will help your specfic league or not. But Pitching is going a LOT higher then usual this year. I was looking at the ADP trends on our site and on a couple of other sites. People are jumping on the pitching bandwagon in rounds 2 - 5.
  25. Absolutely

    Absolutely Self-Heavy Donator

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    Should I be worried that some of my pitching staff is getting absolutely lit up this spring?

    Richard: 1-2. 8.18 ERA, 2.00 WHIP
    Garza: 0-3, 9.88 ERA, 1.90 WHIP
    Lilly: 0-1, 10.50, 1.97 WHIP

    Porcello, Drabeck, Anderson, Dempster, Chacin all look good...

    Kyle McClellan has been monsterous this Spring, 3-0, 0.53 ERA, 0.88 WHIP
    Not saying he's going to win 20, but I love that pick around 400 or whatever it was.

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