2013/2014 NY Yankees offseason thread

Norm Stansfield

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#1
It's gonna be eventful.

The two major headlines so far:
1. The Yankees are trying to re-sign Girardi ASAP, but he doesn't seem as enthusiastic about it. Maybe it's just smart salesmanship, but I'm worried.

2. Cano is asking for $300 mill/10 years, Hal Steinbrenner already said that's too much (and was likely referring to the 10 years, not just the money). I'm thinking the first player to beat A-Rod's contract will be Mike Trout. Looks like this will take a while, and if someone is dumb enough to give him 10 years, they'll just let him go.

Number one on my wish-list: starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. Lifetime numbers in Japan slightly worse than Darvish's, but a 2013 season of 22-0, with an ERA of 1.23. The Yankees would have to shell out a lot of money up front, but that doesn't count towards the salary cap.
 

LilJimmyRbinson

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#2
I'm all for letting Cano walk. We already got 8 years of him for pretty cheap. What's he have, 2-4 more great years left in him? Why sign him for twice that long? Let another team make that mistake for a change.
 

luckie1710

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#4
Signing Tanaka would probably be a good deal. Only thing is it's a blind bid and a ton of teams will be in on him.

He projects to be a number 2 or number 3 starter.
 

Norm Stansfield

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#5
I'm all for letting Cano walk. We already got 8 years of him for pretty cheap. What's he have, 2-4 more great years left in him?
No. The correct answer is between zero and 10. Given his history (and the many examples of players playing very well in their late 30s), probably at least a little closer to ten than zero.

You don't have a crystal ball giving you a more precise answer than that. A definitive 2 to 4 is an arbitrary guess.
Let another team make that mistake for a change.
Let's say there's a hungry bear coming your way, and you're standing next to a tall tree. At that point, there are two ways to argue your plan of action:
1. climbing trees is stupid, because you can fall and break something.
2. risking breaking a leg is better than getting eaten by a bear.

Someone who's phrasing it the nr. 1 way isn't considering context, they're wearing blinders and only looking at what's right in front of them.

Same with this, you can phrase the Yankees plan in two ways:
1. risking signing Cano to an eight year contract is stupid, because he might drop off after 2 to 4 years.
2. risking signing Cano is better than the alternative: over-paying free agent has beens on one year contracts every off season, and therefor losing.

And those ARE the Yankees only choices: take major risks on contracts to great players, or don't be contenders the next five years (at least). There are no other options: they have no .300, 30 HR, 100 RBI hitters in the farm system, they have no prospects to trade for them, and there are no such free agents willing to sign short term deals.

The only question is, how big a risk is worth it. How big a risk guarantees that the Yankees can sign at least some of the Cano caliber players, as they become available? But they DO have to be in contention for players like Cano, and the only way they should give up on him is if someone else is willing to do something really ridiculous, like give him a record breaking contract. Anything average they should absolutely try and top. The only way they'll win is if they bet on big contracts and get lucky. They don't have any other winning strategy, because their farm system is slim pickings at best.
 
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luckie1710

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#6
So if the yankees dont sign cano. They won't be contenders for the next 5 years?
 

Stormrider666

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#7
Hal Steinbrenner basically said on Mike Francesa yesterday that if its between a $189 million dollar payroll and putting a quality team on the field, the latter is going to win out. He also wasn't too happy about the lack of talent coming out of the Yankees' farm system.

Two weeks ago, Cashman said that while $189 million is a goal, its not a number that is set in stone. I think the combination of the team missing playoffs and the possibility of more empty seats in the stadium made them realize that they were going to have to be more flexible when it comes to spending money.

I'm all for re-signing Cano. I say offer him a six year contract that makes him one of the highest paid players in the sport. If he refuses, then I say thanks for the memories and let him walk.
 

Norm Stansfield

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#8
If they win the bid on Tanaka and A-Rod loses his appeal (both likely outcomes), I think they can afford to stay under $189 mill. for next year. I'd rather they over-bid on Tanaka (a $65 mill. bid would be $5 mill. over what Rakuten are expected to get, and pretty much guarantee a win; it would also piss off everybody, as a bonus), than fail to reset their salary cap penalties.

I'd go as far as seven years, $170 mill. for Cano. He can, in theory, play a good second base for another seven years, and he's gonna get that from someone else if the Yankees don't give it to him.

My projected lineup for 2014:
1. Gardner CF
2. Jeter 3B, occasional DH
3. Cano 2B
4. Teixeira 1B
5. Soriano LF
6. Granderson RF (I think it would be a real shame to separate him from the Yankee S. RF porch)
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Eric Chavez DH, occasional 3B
9. minor leaguer who wins the position in spring C

Starters: CC, Kuroda, Nova, Tanaka, Pineda

I think that would be both competitive and under $189 mill.
 

Norm Stansfield

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#9
So if the yankees dont sign cano. They won't be contenders for the next 5 years?
No, if they don't sign Cano, then they have to sign someone else instead to a long term deal, next year or two years from now. Someone who is a little less talented and a little more likely to suck or just not give a fuck. At least Cano is a home grown talent who plays amazingly consistent baseball. If you're gonna take a risk, that's who you should take a risk on.

If they won't take a risk, and they won't sign anyone else either to a long term deal, then they don't have much of a chance to be contenders, no. A team with no prospects even to trade, let alone actually put in the lineup, who only signs free agents who can't get long term contracts elsewhere, will not win anything, ever again, in the MLB. Doesn't matter how much money they have, because there isn't anyone interested in short term contracts, to spend it on.

In that case, it would take at least five years to finally get higher picks, and then trade for good players.

If anything, they should start taking bigger risks, and sign their best players to long term deals earlier on in their careers, before they're winning HR derbys and contending for MVP. Four-five years ago, Cano would've been very much available for a relatively cheap 8 year contract, with a couple of years added on as club options (look at Matt Moore or Evan Longoria's contracts - Longoria is under contract until 2023, and it's still considered a club friendly deal).
 

Stormrider666

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#10
I like the idea of the Yankees signing Brian Mccann. Signing Carlos Beltran makes perfect sense. If this was 2004.
 

Norm Stansfield

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#11
I like the idea of the Yankees signing Brian Mccann. Signing Carlos Beltran makes perfect sense. If this was 2004.
Gary Sanchez is their best prospect. Signing McCann = trading Sanchez. I don't think the Yankees should trade Sanchez.
 

luckie1710

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#12
Gary Sanchez is their best prospect. Signing McCann = trading Sanchez. I don't think the Yankees should trade Sanchez.

Sanchez is 2 years away. So that doesnt mean that you have to trade sanchez. Id also like to see Sanchez hit above A ball.
 

LilJimmyRbinson

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#13
So is that Pineda guy retired or what? How can a 22 year old just drop off like he has?
 

Norm Stansfield

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#14
Sanchez is 2 years away. So that doesnt mean that you have to trade sanchez. Id also like to see Sanchez hit above A ball.
McCann is looking for a four or five year deal, and he's going to get it. So it does mean you have to trade Sanchez. Even if you're right and he's two years away. Meanwhile, there are several other good catchers on the market who would take a two year deal.

Not that they should go for that either. The Yankees would be best served sticking with the plan and reseting their luxury tax. Romine and Cervelli both showed that they can be decent hitters, so, with a limited budget, catcher shouldn't be the priority. The infield, DH, and starting pitching should.
 

luckie1710

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#15
McCann is looking for a four or five year deal, and he's going to get it. So it does mean you have to trade Sanchez. Even if you're right and he's two years away. Meanwhile, there are several other good catchers on the market who would take a two year deal.

Not that they should go for that either. The Yankees would be best served sticking with the plan and reseting their luxury tax. Romine and Cervelli both showed that they can be decent hitters, so, with a limited budget, catcher shouldn't be the priority. The infield, DH, and starting pitching should.

Some team will give McCann a 4 or 5 year deal. I don't think it should be the yankees though. He will be 30 years old in feb. Catcher's dont usually age too well. So i'll pass on giving him a 5 year deal. Since he will probably get 75 million or so. He has disaster written all over him. Let some other team overpay for him.
 

Norm Stansfield

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#16
Granderson turns down qualifying offer. Smart move on his part. Still think Yankees should make him a reasonable offer (3 years, 42 mill., or even 4 years, 56 mill.).

He's a better option than Beltran. And Choo would be overpriced, because he's coming off a career year (a career year that's nowhere near Granderson's career year, which happened in 2011 and continued into last year).
 

luckie1710

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#17
Granderson turns down qualifying offer. Smart move on his part. Still think Yankees should make him a reasonable offer (3 years, 42 mill., or even 4 years, 56 mill.).

He's a better option than Beltran. And Choo would be overpriced, because he's coming off a career year (a career year that's nowhere near Granderson's career year, which happened in 2011 and continued into last year).

I like granderson. But let him go bye bye. Granderson will get at least a 4 year deal for 56 million. No thanks. Granderson's skills declined in 2012. He was hurt last year. So you can't really include 2013 in the equation. His fielding has also declined based on the metrics. So the yankees should let some other team sign him and take the draft pick.

The same goes for beltran and choo. They shouldnt sign beltran to a 2 or 3 year deal. That has disaster written all over it. Choo will want at least 100 million. Let some other team sign him. You can't pay a guy 100 million that can't hit lefties.

They should take a semi conservative approach this offseason. Go after tanaka and some minor pieces. If Cano wont take a a 6 or 7 year deal. Wave bye bye to him as well and sign infante. They might not be great in 2014 with these moves. But this will set them up for the future. Which is what matters. They could save 100 million and build up the farm system going this route.
 

LilJimmyRbinson

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#18
I like granderson. But let him go bye bye. Granderson will get at least a 4 year deal for 56 million. No thanks. Granderson's skills declined in 2012. He was hurt last year. So you can't really include 2013 in the equation. His fielding has also declined based on the metrics. So the yankees should let some other team sign him and take the draft pick.

The same goes for beltran and choo. They shouldnt sign beltran to a 2 or 3 year deal. That has disaster written all over it. Choo will want at least 100 million. Let some other team sign him. You can't pay a guy 100 million that can't hit lefties.

They should take a semi conservative approach this offseason. Go after tanaka and some minor pieces. If Cano wont take a a 6 or 7 year deal. Wave bye bye to him as well and sign infante. They might not be great in 2014 with these moves. But this will set them up for the future. Which is what matters. They could save 100 million and build up the farm system going this route.
I agree with all of this. Enough with the quick fixes. This team has nothing in the development tank which is due to picking in the bottom 1/3 of the draft for 20 years (nice problem to have) so there are no quick fixes. Get under the $189 million threshold and punt next season away (and even 2015 if it means another 10+ years on top of the division).
 

Norm Stansfield

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#19
I agree with all of this. Enough with the quick fixes. This team has nothing in the development tank which is due to picking in the bottom 1/3 of the draft for 20 years (nice problem to have) so there are no quick fixes. Get under the $189 million threshold and punt next season away (and even 2015 if it means another 10+ years on top of the division).
I agree they should stay under $189 mill. But I disagree that that's punting away the season. If A-Rod's suspension is upheld (or even if it's reduced by half), they will have over $100 mill. to spend.

If we include Tanaka's posting fee, the Yankees could to spend over $400 million on new signings this winter (without going over $189 mill. for 2014). Only a Yankees fan could call that punting on the season.:)
 

luckie1710

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#20
I agree they should stay under $189 mill. But I disagree that that's punting away the season. If A-Rod's suspension is upheld (or even if it's reduced by half), they will have over $100 mill. to spend.

If we include Tanaka's posting fee, the Yankees could to spend over $400 million on new signings this winter (without going over $189 mill. for 2014). Only a Yankees fan could call that punting on the season.:)

If you went that route. Spending 400 million. The team would get older and lose a draft pick. No thanks.

Im guessing your plan is tanaka, cano, beltran and???
 

LilJimmyRbinson

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#21
If you went that route. Spending 400 million. The team would get older and lose a draft pick. No thanks.

Im guessing your plan is tanaka, cano, beltran and???
I'd rather them give 4 years to Granderson than 3 years to Beltran.

Sick of the Yankees getting guys 1 to 2 contracts too late.
 

Norm Stansfield

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#22
Lol. Mets met with Jay-Z. Personally. I believe the offer they made for Cano's services was 25 dollars and 50 cents, to be invested with Bernie Madoff's organization.

Looks like the Yanks have this locked down. Doesn't look like anyone else is giving a 31 yo. second baseman more than the 7 years/160 mill. currently on the table.
 

luckie1710

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#23
Yanks signed Ellsbury to a 7 year 153 million dollar deal.
 

LilJimmyRbinson

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#24
I'd rather them give 4 years to Granderson than 3 years to Beltran.

Sick of the Yankees getting guys 1 to 2 contracts too late.
Sigh. So the Mets sign Granderson 4/$60 and the Yanks sign Beltran 3/$45. If you were going to do that, why not just sign the younger guy who you already know hits well in Yankee Stadium? Are they really more concerned about Granderson's age 36 season than Beltran's age 39? If they're both "worth" $15 million a year, how can you go with the guy who's 4 years older?? If they really wanted Beltran they should have out bid the Mets back in 2003.

Looks like the Yanks have this locked down. Doesn't look like anyone else is giving a 31 yo. second baseman more than the 7 years/160 mill. currently on the table.
Woops. Looks like you were wrong. Can't be mad at Cano for jumping ship. Even if the Yanks offer was for the same $ per year, if another team offers 3 more guaranteed years, of course you have to take that. Actually, since every team is getting an additional $26 million per year thanks to the new TV deal with Fox/TBS, the M's really got Cano for house money. Props to them. Can't see this working out well for the long haul, but best of luck to Cano out there. I won't be sending angry, hatful tweets about him leaving.
 

Norm Stansfield

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#25
If they're both "worth" $15 million a year, how can you go with the guy who's 4 years older??
Just because they're worth the same, doesn't mean they're equally good. Beltran is a better hitter. He's more consistent, hits for a better average and doesn't strike out as much. He's also gold in the post season. The reason why he's getting less than Granderson is because he's older.


Woops. Looks like you were wrong. Can't be mad at Cano for jumping ship. Even if the Yanks offer was for the same $ per year, if another team offers 3 more guaranteed years, of course you have to take that. Actually, since every team is getting an additional $26 million per year thanks to the new TV deal with Fox/TBS, the M's really got Cano for house money. Props to them. Can't see this working out well for the long haul, but best of luck to Cano out there. I won't be sending angry, hatful tweets about him leaving.
Yeah, I realized I was wrong soon after I posted that, when I took a look at some of the contracts that got handed out in recent years. If Fielder and Votto got over $200 mill, Cano was obviously gonna get it too. He's better than both.