Breaking News: Obamacare to cost DOUBLE the original price.

Josh_R

Registered User
Jan 29, 2005
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#1
Wow who saw that coming? Entitlement programs always stay on budget, right? Remember how one of the big selling points of Obamacare was that it cost less than $1 trillion?

CBO boosts its Obamacare Medicaid cost estimate byPhilip Klein Senior Editorial Writer


I’ve already noted in a separate post that new Congressional Budget Office projections show President Obama’s health care law will cost $1.76 trillion over 10 years, rather than the $940 billion originally advertised. But there are lots of other moving parts in the CBO’s updated estimates that are worth deeper elaboration.

The big picture takeaway is that due mostly to weaker economic projections, the CBO now projects that more people will be obtaining insurance through Medicaid than it estimated a year ago at a greater cost to the government, but fewer people will be getting insurance through their employers or the health care law’s new subsidized insurance exchanges. Overall spending will be higher than estimated a year ago, but increased revenue from penalties and taxes will more than offset this. Also interesting: CBO now expects two million fewer people to be covered as a result of the health care law than previously projected.

It’s worth keeping in mind that what the CBO did today was update its forecasts for the cost of expanding insurance coverage under the health care law. That represents, by far, the bulk of the spending in the legislation, but it doesn’t constitute a full rescoring of the law or a revised deficit estimate. That would have to include estimates for all the taxes, Medicare cuts and other spending in the law. Also, the $1.76 trillion cited above is for the years 2013 through 2022, but if we want to compare changes to last year’s estimates, we have to use the comparable years of 2012 through 2021. (Estimates for 2022 only became available today.)

The CBO now projects that from 2012 through 2021 the federal government will spend $168 billion more on Medicaid than it expected last year, $97 billion less on subsidies for people to purchase insurance on government-run exchanges and $20 billion less on tax credits to small employers. That works out to a $51 billion increase in the gross cost of expanding coverage from what the CBO estimated a year ago. However, the CBO also expects the federal government to collect more revenue from penalties on individuals and employers, as well as other taxes. These revenue increases will more than offset the spending increases, according to the CBO, so it now expects the cost of Obamacare during those years to be $48 billion lower.

It’s also worth noting that we were told time and again during the health care debate that the law didn’t represent a government takeover of health care. But by 2022, according to the CBO, 3 million fewer people will have health insurance through their employer, while 17 million Americans will be added to Medicaid and 22 million will be getting coverage through government-run exchanges.

Check out the full CBO report here.
http://campaign2012.washingtonexami...s-its-obamacare-medicaid-cost-estimate/425966
 

Myhairygrundle

Screw you guys, I'm going home.
Jul 16, 2005
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#3
A government program costing more than estimated? Shocking.
 

whiskeyguy

PR representative for Drunk Whiskeyguy.
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Jan 12, 2010
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#5
Somehow I doubt this article. I can't imagine it only costing double the original estimates.
 

VMS

Victim of high standards and low personal skills.
Apr 26, 2006
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#6
I think the other article is based on projections for how much total savings the Healthcare-Plan-That-President-Obama-Gets-Credit-And-Blame-For-But-Let's-Face-It-He-Punted-To-Congress-And-Had-Them-Write-It. Which is still bullshit.

Look, these numbers are from the CBO. There's a reason why the CBO is "non-partisan": they're effectively brain dead. Not that CBO staffers are stupid of anything like that, but by definition every CBO number comes from the numbers they're given. If the CBO is given a bill, and in the bill is a line that says the bill will generate $18 trillion from the sale of pixie dust to the dwarves who live under the Antarctic ice cap, then the CBO numbers are going to show an $18 trillion credit for the bill.

Articles that tell you the CBO says X or the CBO says Y don't mean jack shit.
 

Josh_R

Registered User
Jan 29, 2005
5,847
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Akron, Ohio
#7
Ok, here is the official CBO website summary of the findings. Apparently OAPC is right that they do claim that it CUTS costs overall, but the projections for the actual program are higher. So if you believe that all the budget offsets etc will actually work and be implemented, then it will cost less.

In preparing the March 2012 baseline budget projections, CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have updated estimates of the budgetary effects of the health insurance coverage provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA)—the health care legislation enacted in March 2010. Those provisions:

Establish a mandate for most legal residents of the United States to obtain health insurance;
Create insurance “exchanges” through which certain individuals and families may receive federal subsidies to substantially reduce the cost of purchasing health insurance;
Significantly expand eligibility for Medicaid;
Impose an excise tax on certain health insurance plans with relatively high premiums;
Establish penalties on certain employers who do not provide minimum health benefits to their employees; and
Make other changes to prior law.
The most recent previous estimate of those effects was prepared in March 2011. For more details on the insurance coverage provisions of the ACA, you can see CBO’s cost estimate for the health care legislation, which was issued in March 2010.

The Estimated Net Cost of the Insurance Coverage Provisions Is Smaller Than Estimated in March 2011
CBO and JCT now estimate that the insurance coverage provisions of the ACA will have a net cost of just under $1.1 trillion over the 2012-2021 period-about $50 billion less than the agencies' March 2011 estimate for that 10-year period. (For comparison with previous estimates, these numbers cover the 2012-2021 period; estimates including 2022 can be found below.)

The net costs--specifically the combined effects on federal revenues and mandatory spending--reflect:

Gross additional costs of $1.5 trillion for Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), tax credits and other subsidies for the purchase of health insurance through the newly established exchanges and related costs, and tax credits for small employers,
Offset in part by about $0.4 trillion in receipts from penalty payments, the new excise tax on high-premium insurance plans, and other budgetary effects (mostly increases in tax revenues).
Those amounts do not encompass all of the budgetary impacts of the ACA. They do not include federal administrative costs, which will be subject to future appropriation action. Also, they do not include the effects of the many other provisions of the law, including some that will cause significant reductions in Medicare spending relative to that under prior law and others that will generate added tax revenues relative those under prior law.

CBO and JCT have previously estimated that the ACA will, on net, reduce budget deficits over the 2012-2021 period; that estimate of the overall budgetary impact of the ACA has not been updated.

Gross Costs Are Higher, but Offsetting Budgetary Effects Are Also Higher
The current estimate of the gross costs of the coverage provisions—$1,496 billion through 2021—is about $50 billion higher than last year's projection; however, the other budgetary effects of those provisions, which partially offset those gross costs, also have increased in CBO’s and JCT’s estimates—to $413 billion—leading to the small decrease in the net 10-year tally.


Over the 10-year period from 2012 through 2021, enactment of the coverage provisions of the ACA was projected last March to increase federal deficits by $1,131 billion, whereas the March 2012 estimate indicates that those provisions will increase deficits by $1,083 billion.

The net cost was boosted by:

An additional $168 billion in estimated costs for Medicaid and CHIP, and
$8 billion less in estimated revenues from the excise tax on certain high-premium health insurance plans.

But those increases were more than offset by a reduction of:

$97 billion in the projected costs for the tax credits and other subsidies for health insurance provided through the exchanges and related spending
$20 billion in the projected costs for tax credits for small employers, and
$107 billion in deficits from the projected revenue effects of changes in taxable compensation and penalty payments and from other small changes in estimated spending.

The Revisions in Estimates Reflect Legislative, Economic, and Technical Changes
The major sources for the differences between the March 2011 and March 2012 projections are the following:

New Legislation. Several laws were enacted during the past year that changed the estimated budgetary effects of the insurance coverage provisions of the ACA.
Changes in the Economic Outlook. The March 2012 baseline incorporates CBO’s macroeconomic forecast published in January 2012, which reflects a slower recovery when compared with the forecast published in January 2011 (which was used in producing the March 2011 baseline).
Technical Changes. The March 2012 baseline incorporates updated projections of the growth in private health insurance premiums, reflecting slower growth than the previous projections. In addition, CBO and JCT made a number of other technical changes in their estimating procedures.
The Number of the Nonelderly Uninsured Is Higher Than Previously Estimated
CBO and JCT's projections of health insurance coverage have changed since last March. Fewer people are now expected to obtain health insurance coverage from their employer or in insurance exchanges; more are now expected to obtain coverage from Medicaid or CHIP or from nongroup or other sources. More are expected to be uninsured. The extent of the change in insurance coverage varies from year to year.

Compared with prior law, the ACA is now estimated by CBO and JCT to reduce the number of nonelderly people without health insurance coverage by 30 million to 33 million in 2016 and subsequent years, leaving 26 million to 27 million nonelderly residents uninsured in those years (see Table 3 at the end of the report). The share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance is projected to rise from 82 percent in 2012 to 93 percent in 2016 and subsequent years. That share rose to 95 percent in CBO and JCT's previous estimate.

According to the current estimates, from 2016 on, between 20 million and 23 million people will receive coverage through the new insurance exchanges, and 16 million to 17 million additional people will be enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP as a result of ACA. Also, 3 million to 5 million fewer people will have coverage through an employer compared with the number under prior law

Estimates Through Fiscal Year 2022
This report also presents estimates through fiscal year 2022, because the baseline projection period now extends through that additional year. The ACA’s provisions related to insurance coverage are now projected to have a net cost of $1,252 billion over the 2012-2022 period; that amount represents a gross cost to the federal government of $1,762 billion, offset in part by $510 billion in receipts and other budgetary effects (primarily revenues from penalties and other sources).

The addition of 2022 to the projection period has the effect of increasing the costs of the coverage provisions of the ACA relative to those projected in March 2011 for the 2012-2021 period because that change adds a year in which the expansion of eligibility for Medicaid and subsidies for health insurance purchased through the exchanges will be in effect. CBO and JCT have not estimated the budgetary effects in 2022 of the other provisions of the ACA; over the 2012-2021 period, those other provisions were previously estimated to reduce budget deficits.
http://cbo.gov/publication/43080

So apparently shitloads more people will be on Medicare and Medicaid and fewer people will receive employer based insurance, but all their budget gimmicks will offset the costs plus some.
 

Myhairygrundle

Screw you guys, I'm going home.
Jul 16, 2005
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#8
And in other breaking news....Medicare and Medicaid have also gone over their anticipated cost.
 

CougarHunter

Lying causes cat piss smell.
Mar 2, 2006
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#9
Yeah, let's hand 20% of the American economy over to the government. What can possibly go wrong?