Economists Say Recession Has Arrived As Outlook Darkens

Stalker2

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Most Economists Say Recession Has Arrived as Outlook Darkens



by Phil Izzo
Thursday, March 13, 2008provided by

The U.S. has finally slid into recession, according to the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal economic-forecasting survey, a view that was reinforced by new data showing a sharp drop in retail sales last month.
"The evidence is now beyond a reasonable doubt," said Scott Anderson of Wells Fargo & Co., who was among the 71% of 51 respondents to say that the economy is now in a recession.
The Commerce Department said Thursday that retail sales tumbled 0.6% in February; sales excluding volatile auto and parts decreased 0.2%. The decline reflected a sharp slowdown in consumer spending, the primary driver of U.S. economic growth, as Americans grapple with high gasoline prices and the credit crunch, as well as drops in home values and other asset prices.

The survey, conducted March 7 through March 11, marked a precipitous shift to the negative from the previous survey conducted five weeks earlier. For example, the economists now expect nonfarm payrolls to grow by an average of only 9,000 jobs a month for the next 12 months -- down from an expected 48,500 in the previous survey. Twenty economists now expect payrolls to shrink outright. And the average forecast for the unemployment rate was raised to 5.5% by December from 4.8% in the previous survey.
Much of the gloom stemmed from last Friday's employment report, which showed a loss of 63,000 jobs in February, the second consecutive monthly decline. "My recession call comes from the employment data," said Stephen Stanley of RBS Greenwich Capital. "It struck me as a recessionary number.

LINK: http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bu...-Say-Recession-Has-Arrived-as-Outlook-Darkens
 

Nortonsmeatytit

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It's getting out of control and the govt. economists are just full of shit sticking their heads in the sand.

Inflation is getting unreal, in the past week I spoke to a guy who owns a pretzel store who told me the wholesale pricing on gluten flour has friggin soared from about $8 a bag he was paying last Nov. to about $34 a bag for the same shit now, between the farmers growing corn for friggin ethanol product useage and the price of diesel fuel for delivery costs rising the costs associated w/alot of shit has skyrocketed. I spoke to my pizza gut also who told me his price of all his cheeses & meats has gone thru the roof, he raised all his prices recently for the second time in three months.

The job market blows as well, I've been looking for the past two months and mostly dogshit offerings out there w/shit companies either already going down the toilet or soon to be doing so.

I think we're fucked for a while here, nothing is looking good, throw in the fact that it's a fucking election year also for a cherry on top.
 

domelogic

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#3
there was a thread about the economy two months ago and someone told me that its not a recession until an economist says so. apparently they said so, i wonder if that poster believes it now
 

Kris_LTRMa

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But...but...but...didn't President Bush say we weren't in nor heading towards a recession? Why would he LIE to the American people like that?

:icon_cry:
 

VMS

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While it's generally doubtful we'll go into a full-blown depression, we were bound to go into a recession eventually.

This is gonna be a bad one. It's a combination punch whopper between the housing market and the energy market.

The good news is that if you've got some change in your pocket now, it's a very GOOD time to buy some rental properties since all the foreclosure people will need places to live and these places are going for relatively cheap.

The second piece of good news is that, as with the last big energy crisis in the 70s, this is going to push alternative fuels tech pretty hard. The last time around, technology simply wasn't up to the task (and then Three Mile Island happened, which put a stop to the best alt-fuel prospect we had/have...). This time around, we're almost there, technology-wise.

The first company that can build an electrically-powered vehicle that can be recharged in less than 15 minutes, has a range of ~300 miles, can carry 4 people plus luggage AND cost less than $30k will DESTROY the automobile industry. The fuel economy of Japanese cars was the big push that helped them eventually eclipse the American automakers. Whoever figures out how to manage 15 min/300 miles/4 ppl/$30k will be the next auto champ.

ZAP!!!!

The ZAP-X is almost there. It "just" needs to drop in price by about half and manage the infrastructure upgrade of their rapid-recharge stations to actually make cross country trips in this toy possible.

The drop in price is the easy part. I figure that'll happen within 5 years. The infrastructure, THAT'S gonna kick our ass...
 

Schmed

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it's what happens when you have an over-leveraged economy.

People need to save more, not buy 75K cars when they earn 50K.

Everybody's a fucking victim.
 
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#7
yea just because you get a great rate dont mean go buy a fuckin mansion. people are so fuckin stupid
 

Schmed

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While it's generally doubtful we'll go into a full-blown depression, we were bound to go into a recession eventually.

This is gonna be a bad one. It's a combination punch whopper between the housing market and the energy market.

The good news is that if you've got some change in your pocket now, it's a very GOOD time to buy some rental properties since all the foreclosure people will need places to live and these places are going for relatively cheap.

The second piece of good news is that, as with the last big energy crisis in the 70s, this is going to push alternative fuels tech pretty hard. The last time around, technology simply wasn't up to the task (and then Three Mile Island happened, which put a stop to the best alt-fuel prospect we had/have...). This time around, we're almost there, technology-wise.

The first company that can build an electrically-powered vehicle that can be recharged in less than 15 minutes, has a range of ~300 miles, can carry 4 people plus luggage AND cost less than $30k will DESTROY the automobile industry. The fuel economy of Japanese cars was the big push that helped them eventually eclipse the American automakers. Whoever figures out how to manage 15 min/300 miles/4 ppl/$30k will be the next auto champ.

ZAP!!!!

The ZAP-X is almost there. It "just" needs to drop in price by about half and manage the infrastructure upgrade of their rapid-recharge stations to actually make cross country trips in this toy possible.

The drop in price is the easy part. I figure that'll happen within 5 years. The infrastructure, THAT'S gonna kick our ass...
Yeh, read about this 3-4 months ago in PopSci. They claim it will cost around $4 (to charge) which will be the equivalent of a fill-up. I made the BIG mistake of buying a Jeep Commander, says 16/20 MPG but the fucking piece of shit gets around 9/10. I am so pissed off.

70's was also the beginning of Oil shale exploration, for which the US has the largest reserves, about 3 trillion barrels. Israel developed a method of extraction that costs around $20/bbl to extract.
 

Turfmower

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#9
What they need to do it stop with all the Ethanol shit that what is driving up food prices.
 

Smokezilla

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#10
The bank that I work for is bracing for the worst. . . We've already been given instructions on how to help us "weather the storm" in our Collections Dept. last week. Batten-down the hatches. . . It's a Nor'Easter!!!
 

LiddyRules

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#12
And spend more so the terrorists don't win.
 

Don the Radio Guy

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They've pretty much beaten thing thing back as long as they could. If things hadn't been handled the way they have this would have happened 5 years ago. Perhaps its just better to get it over with.

Thank god I don't owe anyone a penny. :D
 
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