PotL Fall Movies 2013- What Will Be The Pick of the Litter?

LiddyRules

I'm Gonna Be The Bestest Pilot In The Whole Galaxy
Jun 1, 2005
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After @AlanSmithee made it clear that my Summer 2013 movies thread was dogshit, I decided to do another seasonal movie thread for Fall 2013 (September to December). I figure doing it with every four months would make more sense than combining December with January and February. Anyhoo..............here's what we have to look forward to as far as big (and some smaller) releases.

SEPTEMBER
Riddick- September 6
The Family- September 13
Insidious: Chapter 2- September 13
Blue Caprice- September 13
Battle of the Year in 3D- September 20
Prisoners- September 20
Rush- September 20
Baggage Claim- September 27
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2- September 27
Don Jon- September 27
Metallica- Through The Never- September 27

OCTOBER
Gravity- October 4
Runner Runner- October 4
Parkland- October 4
Captain Philips- October 11
Machete Kills- October 11
The Fifth Estate- October 11
Carrie- October 18
Escape Plan- October 18
Twelve Years a Slave- October 18
All is Lost- October 18
The Counselor- October 25
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa- October 25
Blue is the Warmest Color- October 25

NOVEMBER
Ender's Game- November 1
Free Birds- November 1
Last Vegas- November 1
About Time- November 1
Dallas Buyers Club- November 1
Thor: The Dark World- November 8
The Best Man Holiday- November 15
The Book Thief- November 15
The Wold of Wall Street- November 15
Delivery Man- November 22
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire- November 22
Black Nativity- November 27
Frozen- November 27
Homefront- November 27
Oldboy- November 27

DECEMBER
Out of the Furnace- December 6
Inside Llewyn Davis- December 6
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- December 13
Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas- December 13
American Hustle- December 13
Saving Mr. Banks- December 13
Anchorman: The Legend Continues- December 20
The Monuments Men- December 20
Walking with Dinosaurs- December 20
Her- December 20
47 Ronin- December 25
Grudge Match- December 25
Jack Ryan- December 25
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty- December 25

The Zero Theorem should also be coming out in these months.

Later, I'll go through what I'm planning and also come up with another failed list of Top 5 movies later. However, I will say Hunger Games 2 will be the biggest movie of this season.

As for Summer (which was just May to July), my initial thoughts were

Man of Steel
Star Trek Into Darkness
Iron Man 3
Lone Ranger
The Hangover Part III

Iron Man 3 is a virtual lock for $400 million. I'd love to see Man of Steel challenge that number, and think that it will. Those will be the top 2 by a wide margin. Skyfall's surprising( to everyone but me) success does open the door for Star Trek to possibly get to $300. The remaining two spots will be Monsters U and Hangover 3

Out of the rest, only Despicable Me 2 is a threat to crack $200.
The Top 10 movies of the summer were...

Iron Man 3 ($408)
Desp. Me 2 ($355)
Man of Steel ($290)
Monsters University ($264)
Fast and Furious 6 ($238)
Star Trek Into Darkness ($228)
World War Z ($200)
The Heat ($157)
The Great Gatsby ($144)
The Conjuring ($134)

The Hangover III was #14 with $112 million and was just beaten by We're The Millers this week.
 
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whiskeyguy

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These are the only movies whose plot I know about (if the ones in italics are correct). The ones in bold I'll see fairly soon after release, for various reasons.

The big three out of this list will probably be The Hunger Games, The Hobbit, and Anchorman... most likely in that order. I'm saying this based largely on title alone. I have no idea how Thor movies do, I just remember disliking the last one.

Insidious: Chapter 2- September 13
Gravity- October 4
Carrie- October 18 - Stephen King's Carrie?
The Counselor- October 25
Ender's Game- November 1
Thor: The Dark World- November 8
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire- November 22
Oldboy- November 27
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- December 13
Anchorman: The Legend Continues- December 20

Jack Ryan- December 25 - Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan?


The Zero Theorem should also be coming out in these months.
 

TomC

uppity neobarb
Aug 1, 2006
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#4
more like "pick of the litterBOX" or sumtin.


I know, FAIL
 

Pigdango

Silence, you mortal Fuck!
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Jun 22, 2004
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September is the worst month of the year for movies, so all of that can be sort of excluded from the discussion.

So I'll just go and grab movies that I think will do ok, and then I'll put them in order:

Gravity
Runner Runner
Carrie
Escape Plan
The Counselor
Bad Grandpa
Ender's Game
Last Vegas
Free Birds
Thor 2
Wolf of Wall Street
Delivery Man
Hunger Games 2
Frozen
Homefront
Hobbit 2
Madea Christmas
Anchorman 2
Oceans 14
Walking With Dinosaurs
Walter Mitty
Grudge Match
Jack Ryan

The top 3 is pretty easy:
Hobbit 2 - $350 - $375million
Hunger Games 2 - $325-$350 million
Thor 2 - $225 - $250 million

After that...I'll have to do some digging. There's no clear #4 there. I guess Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 could actually be the #4 movie. But I think one of the other animated movies will do better. I just don't know anything about them yet.
 
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LiddyRules

I'm Gonna Be The Bestest Pilot In The Whole Galaxy
Jun 1, 2005
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#7
Stuff I know I'll see:


The only September movie I might see is Blue Caprice, though there are some holdovers I've been wanting to see from August. I saw the trailer for Don Jon and all I could think of was how incredibly powerful Shame was.

October- Gravity, Twelve Years a Slave. Maybes for The Fifth Estate and All is Lost. Less definite maybes for Blue is the Warmest Color and The Counselor.

November- Definites- Thor, Wolf of Warcraft. Maybes- Ender's Game, Dallas Buyer's Club, Old Boy. Delivery Man stars Vince Vaughn and reminds me why I hate Vince Vaughn.

December- Llewyn Davis, Hobbit, American Hustle, Anchorman 2, Her. Maybes- Saving Mr. Banks, Monuments Men, Secret Life of Walter Mitty.

Zero Theorem is another definite.

Pigdango said:
Oceans 14
Now I want the movie to begin with them stealing a time machine.
 

TomC

uppity neobarb
Aug 1, 2006
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#9
September is the worst month of the year for movies, so all of that can be sort of excluded from the discussion.

So I'll just go and grab movies that I think will do ok, and then I'll put them in order:

Gravity
Runner Runner
Carrie
Escape Plan
The Counselor
Bad Grandpa
Ender's Game
Last Vegas
Free Birds
Thor 2
Wolf of Wall Street
Delivery Man
Hunger Games 2
Frozen
Homefront
Hobbit 2
Madea Christmas
Anchorman 2
Oceans 14
Walking With Dinosaurs
Walter Mitty
Grudge Match
Jack Ryan

The top 3 is pretty easy:
Hobbit 2 - $350 - $375million
Hunger Games 2 - $325-$350 million
Thor 2 - $225 - $250 million

After that...I'll have to do some digging. There's no clear #4 there. I guess Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 could actually be the #4 movie. But I think one of the other animated movies will do better. I just don't know anything about them yet.
top 3 is a given, but I would say Ender has the next best shot at #4, billed "young Adult" and a couple named stars for adults, and space movie for the those of us that love Sci-fi, I'm NOT happy with the things I've seen and read about, but thats just from a book nerd.
 

AlanSmithee

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Oct 11, 2012
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Im sorry Liddy... shoulda used the ole search function.

 

LiddyRules

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#11
@Pigdango

How come The Hobbit 2 gains $50 to $75 million while Hunger Games 2 loses $50 to $75 million? I'm not being a dick, I'm just curious behind your logic. Though I do agree with your top 3 overall except I'd reverse HG2 with H2.

I'm curious about Jack Ryan though since that seems to be the only movie without any footage/trailers out.

Here's the trailer for Delivery Man


I hate Vince Vaughn so very, very much. Can't SHIELD and the Guardians of the Galaxy destroy him? (I also can't wait for December when we do Fred Claus again. I can't hear Beast of Burden without laughing.)

EDIT: Something else I realized is that last year's big Christmas movies were adult dramas Les Miz and Django Unchained while this year none of them are.
 
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Pigdango

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A couple different reasons:

Look at the trajectory of the Harry Potter movies. 2, 3, and 4 are the lowest grossing. So my guess without knowing anything about the books is that 2 and 3 will be lower grossing than 1 and 4. Twilight has the opposite trajectory because of the Team Edward/Team Jacob thing. I'm not sure if there is a similar Team Peta/Team Loki thing going on, but if there is I've never heard of it. (I think I've used that joke before, so I apologize)

More competition. Hunger Games came out in March and was number one for four straight weeks. HG2 comes out 2 weeks after Thor 2 and 2 weeks before Hobbit 2.

As for the Hobbit gaining money, each Lord of the Rings movie made $30 million more than the previous one. And the first Hobbit was really just a retread of Fellowship. This one holds the promise of something significantly different - the Dragon. Plus I don't know that the competition is quite as stiff this time around. I may be wrong about that. Like I said I don't know a lot about these movies yet.
 

thekidslepthere

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May 19, 2004
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Maybes- Saving Mr. Banks.
Saving Mr. Banks was actually a fantastic script. But I'm kind of gay for the history of Disney and the parks. I'm at Disney studios once a week and I still geek out over it more than any of the other studios.
 

AlanSmithee

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Oct 11, 2012
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#14
I'm pumped for the "Wolf of Wall Street." I read the book when it came out and I'm curious to see what Terrance Winter did with the script.
 

LiddyRules

I'm Gonna Be The Bestest Pilot In The Whole Galaxy
Jun 1, 2005
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Saving Mr. Banks was actually a fantastic script. But I'm kind of gay for the history of Disney and the parks. I'm at Disney studios once a week and I still geek out over it more than any of the other studios.
I read the Neal Gabler biography of Walt Disney a couple months back and found it very interesting, particularly with how hands-on he seemed to be with each new evolution of his legacy. I also liked using YouTube as a companion to watch some of the really early animated shorts.
 

thekidslepthere

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I read the Neal Gabler biography of Walt Disney a couple months back and found it very interesting, particularly with how hands-on he seemed to be with each new evolution of his legacy. I also liked using YouTube as a companion to watch some of the really early animated shorts.
I've stopped reading about Walt, as much as I admire him in many ways, I just get too mad about how Ub Iwerks was screwed over by him.
 

Pigdango

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Gravity looks like it is going to bust out for over $125 million and be an early Oscar contender to boot. It's at a 96% on RT and looks fucking fantastic.
 

LiddyRules

I'm Gonna Be The Bestest Pilot In The Whole Galaxy
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Gravity looks like it is going to bust out for over $125 million and be an early Oscar contender to boot. It's at a 96% on RT and looks fucking fantastic.
I still say that The Hunger Games will do better than The Hobbit. I also wonder if Jack Ryan is going to be pushed forward because I think that's the only major 2013 movie we've gotten nothing from thus far.
 

CougarHunter

Lying causes cat piss smell.
Mar 2, 2006
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Of all these, the only one I plan on seeing is The Hobbit. At this point, I'm four movies into a six movie series and am bordering on indifference.
 

Pigdango

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I still say that The Hunger Games will do better than The Hobbit. I also wonder if Jack Ryan is going to be pushed forward because I think that's the only major 2013 movie we've gotten nothing from thus far.
You could be right. Boxoffice.com is also predicting a dropoff for Hunger Games 2, but not as steep as I am. They're projecting $390 million. I think they're basing that only on the shift from March to November, while I'm adding in my opinion of the movie itself. I just think the Dragon adds an element to Lord of the Rings that hasn't been seen, while HG2 looks like a lot more of the same. That was the problem with Harry Potter 2 and 3 - the story structure was too similar to the first one. It wasn't until they started to step out of the school routine that things turned around box office-wise.

Thor 2 looks fucking great. I'm really surprised. I didn't even see the first one in the theater because I figured it would suck, but they pulled it off and now it looks like they're really going for it with this one.

You may be onto something with Jack Ryan. Or did you already know this?

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/paramount-could-shift-wolf-wall-635624

Martin Scorsese's The Wolf of Wall Street -- headlined by Leonardo DiCaprio -- won't be ready for its scheduled Nov. 15 release, raising the possibility that it won't be a contender in this year's Oscar race.

Insiders say Scorsese's cut of the film is 180 minutes long, and that he's currently in discussions with his producers about how to shorten the running time. Red Granite is fully financing and produced the drama, with Paramount handling the film domestically.

Paramount and Scorsese are hoping that the movie, based onformer broker Jordan Belfort'sbest-selling memoir, will be completed by Christmas in time for an awards run. If not, Wolf would be pushed back to next year. Either way, it won't be ready for a sneak screening at the upcoming New York Film Festival.

If Wolf is done in time for a holiday release, Paramount will push back the opening of KennethBranagh's Jack Ryan from Christmas Day to Jan. 17 and give Wolf of Wall Street the Christmas Day slot, sources tell The Hollywood Reporter. Jack Ryan would open over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, a lucrative moviegoing weekend that saw Paramount's Cloverfield gross north of $40 million in 2008.

Jack Ryan, starring Chris Pine and Keira Knightley, hopes to relaunch Paramount's marquee spy franchise. Skydance Productions is Paramount's partner on the film, which also stars Kevin Costner. While based on the hero of Tom Clancy'sbest-selling book series, the movie is an original story that traces how a young Jack Ryan joined the CIA.
I noticed in that article that it's not even based on one of Clancy's novels - It's an original story. Why? Why would you do that?
 

LiddyRules

I'm Gonna Be The Bestest Pilot In The Whole Galaxy
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You could be right. Boxoffice.com is also predicting a dropoff for Hunger Games 2, but not as steep as I am. They're projecting $390 million. I think they're basing that only on the shift from March to November, while I'm adding in my opinion of the movie itself. I just think the Dragon adds an element to Lord of the Rings that hasn't been seen, while HG2 looks like a lot more of the same. That was the problem with Harry Potter 2 and 3 - the story structure was too similar to the first one. It wasn't until they started to step out of the school routine that things turned around box office-wise.
I think Hunger Games has a pretty big fanbase that's not really connected to with other movies. Obviously you can't rely on teen girls, but I don't think you can discount them either.

And I don't think the dragon is as big a selling point as you're making it out to be. Now, we get dragons weekly. And they come with a ridiculously hot chick with tits.

You may be onto something with Jack Ryan. Or did you already know this?

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/paramount-could-shift-wolf-wall-635624



I noticed in that article that it's not even based on one of Clancy's novels - It's an original story. Why? Why would you do that?
I did not know that. But if you're idea for moving your big Christmas Day release is to send it to January 17? Ouch. And still, we got nothing. Not even a poster.
 
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Pigdango

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I assume you're not getting anything because they don't want to put a bunch of shit out with "Christmas" and then have to change it all. And MLK weekend is a pretty good weekend. I don't think moving a movie like Jack Ryan to that date really hurts it's box office. Some pretty decent sized action movies have done well in January. Green Hornet and Book of Eli both made almost $100 million. I don't know what they were expecting out of Jack Ryan the 3rd, but I have to think they'd be happy with that. Yeah, they're all in the $85 - $125 million range.
 

LiddyRules

I'm Gonna Be The Bestest Pilot In The Whole Galaxy
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#24
I assume you're not getting anything because they don't want to put a bunch of shit out with "Christmas" and then have to change it all. And MLK weekend is a pretty good weekend. I don't think moving a movie like Jack Ryan to that date really hurts it's box office. Some pretty decent sized action movies have done well in January. Green Hornet and Book of Eli both made almost $100 million. I don't know what they were expecting out of Jack Ryan the 3rd, but I have to think they'd be happy with that. Yeah, they're all in the $85 - $125 million range.
Jack Ryan IV (Baldwin, Ford, Affleck). But even a teaser poster saying "Coming Soon" would have been useful.
 

Pigdango

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I always forget about Hunt for Red October. I guess because they really pitched that as a Sean Connery movie.