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Football Keeper Question

Discussion in 'Fantasy Leagues' started by jagsfans, Aug 7, 2012.

  1. jagsfans

    jagsfans Registered User

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    OK, My league allows 4 keepers and they all retain the value of the round they were drafted in. Listed are the keepers I'm debating. Any advice would be welcome.

    Arian Foster - Round 4
    Antonio Brown - Round 8
    Ryan Fitzpatrick - Round 10
    Miles Austin - Round 15
    Brandon Lloyd - Round 19
    Joe Flacco - Round 21
    Carson Palmer - Round 22
     
  2. Mother Shucker

    Mother Shucker I'm over here now.

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    Flaco in round 21? He may be the best QB in the league.
     
  3. jagsfans

    jagsfans Registered User

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    I picked him up as a FA three years ago. Our rules dictate a FA pickup is a last round keeper. Last year I picked up Palmer. Flacco has been disappointing to me the last two years so I'm tempted to let all my QB's go and get Eli Manning or Matt Schaub in the draft.
     
  4. Mother Shucker

    Mother Shucker I'm over here now.

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    It's just a little joke. A certain poster here actually believes he is "elite".
     
  5. jagsfans

    jagsfans Registered User

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    Oh gotcha. He certainly isn't elite. He's a passable QB, but I'm reaching a determination that I can't win with any of those QB's.
     
  6. luckie1710

    luckie1710 Registered User

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    I was going to say WTF lol
     
  7. luckie1710

    luckie1710 Registered User

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    Foster - since he's the number 1 pick. Getting him i the 4th is a bargain.
    Brandon Lloyd - he's a top 15 WR. And I think he will have a monster yr with brady
    Miles - Austin - top 15 WR as well

    Last one I might go with Carson Palmer. I think he is going to have a really good year.
     
  8. jagsfans

    jagsfans Registered User

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    I got Arian Foster 2 years ago, the season he blew up. Ben Tate got injured and I drafted him a week later in the 4th before most people knew his name. I'm real high on Antonio Brown b/c Mike Wallace is holding out so he may have a shot to get some #1 WR time. Ben's "slightly torn" rotator cuff has me concerned about him.
     
  9. Pigdango

    Pigdango Silence, you mortal Fuck!
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    I would keep Foster, Fitzpatrick, Austin and Brown.

    Foster and Austin are no brainers.

    Fitzmagic has started like a ball of fire the past two years.
    2011: First Half 15 TD's, 9 INT's. Second Half: 9 TD's 14 INT's
    2010: First Half 18 TD's, 9 INT's. Second Half: 5 TD's, 6 INT's

    Start him for 6 or 7 weeks and then see if you can trade him for a real QB for the 2nd half/future.

    Brady didn't do shit for Ocho Cinco, so I don't know that Lloyd is a sure thing. You may be able to simply re-draft him. I like Brown because he was awesome (84 YPG, which makes him a Top 10 WR) as a starter last year after Hines Ward died in that horrible accident at Gotham Stadium. With Wallace still not reporting, Brown could step in as the #1 (and only) option in Pittsburgh. I don't know how your league values WR though, so if 8 is too high to draft a potential Top 10 WR, let him go. In some leagues even good WR don't count for shit.

    Flacco and Palmer can't even be considered. They are fantasy football cancer.
     
  10. jagsfans

    jagsfans Registered User

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    WR's are weighted higher than RB's. 10 yds per point for rec yards vs. 15 yds per point for rush yards. We started favoring WR's to balance out the game a few years ago.
     
  11. luckie1710

    luckie1710 Registered User

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    Ocho cinco couldnt get on the same page as brady. And brady didnt trust him. Lloyd wanted to come to NE. He did really well in spring practice. And has been doing well in training camp. Ocho Cinco and Bradon lloyd are apples and oranges.

    As for fitzpatrick. I think he should be pretty good this year. But I dont think he should be kept. Fitzpatrick is probably the 21st best qb fantasy wise. So far his ADP is 188. So he would be keeping him instead of a 10th round pick. Fitzpatrick wouldnt go before the 10th round in a 12 team league. If we want to compare. Palmer's ADP is 108. So that seems like a bigger value to me here.
     
  12. luckie1710

    luckie1710 Registered User

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    Ocho cinco couldnt get on the same page as brady. And brady didnt trust him. Lloyd wanted to come to NE. He did really well in spring practice. And has been doing well in training camp. Ocho Cinco and Bradon lloyd are apples and oranges.

    As for fitzpatrick. I think he should be pretty good this year. But I dont think he should be kept. Fitzpatrick is probably the 21st best qb fantasy wise. So far his ADP is 188. So he would be keeping him instead of a 10th round pick. Fitzpatrick wouldnt go before the 10th round in a 12 team league. If we want to compare. Palmer's ADP is 108. So that seems like a bigger value to me here.
     
  13. Mother Shucker

    Mother Shucker I'm over here now.

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    I can't say who it is, but it rhymes with John the Fucker.
     
  14. Pigdango

    Pigdango Silence, you mortal Fuck!
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    Like i said, the play with Fitzy is to bank on another big September and sell high. I literally see no upside with Palmer. If his ADP is 108, people are fucking retarded.

    Lloyd and Ocho Cinco may be apples and oranges, but they still have the same general problem: They're the 4th piece of fruit out of the bag after Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez. Realistically the 5th piece after "insert check down back here." Lloyd is Fool's Gold this year. 4th/5th receiving options aren't a good fantasy option on any team, even the Patriots.
     
  15. jagsfans

    jagsfans Registered User

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    A different league I'm in allows 3 keepers and they all retain the value of the round they were drafted in. Listed are the keepers I'm debating.

    DeSean Jackson - Round 4
    Dez Bryant - Round 5
    Tony Romo - Round 7
    Darren Sproles - Round 10
    Antonio Brown - Round 18
    Victor Cruz - Round 19
     
  16. Pigdango

    Pigdango Silence, you mortal Fuck!
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    That's a bit tougher. The only no brainer is Sproles. D Jack is out, and I'm always wary of putting too much value on Giants receivers, they seem too interchangeable. They've had a different leading receiver in each of the past 4 years. So that means you've got to pick two out of Bryant, Romo, and Brown. I think in your spot I'd keep Romo and Brown and see if you can replace Bryant with a higher end option. How do trades work? If you deal one of your WR can the new team keep him at the same value? If so I'd try to deal Cruz. Someone's likely really high on him.
     
  17. luckie1710

    luckie1710 Registered User

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    Hey jags 12 team league?
    Here is my problem. You would be keeping fitzpatrick and losing a 10th round pick. Fitzpatrick is going later then the 10th round. So that's not a ton of value right there. You could probably draft fitzpatrick in the 12 or 13th round and then deal him after if you wanted to go that route.

    And I do think fitzpatrick will have a good year. I just dont think he is a good value at 10. Here are some random facts about Fitzpatrick. Thanks to Matthew Berry

    This offseason, Bills coach Chan Gailey revealed that Ryan Fitzpatrick played the final nine games with two cracked ribs.

    Prior to that injury, Fitzpatrick averaged 248 passing yards and two touchdowns for 15 fantasy points a game. He also completed 67.7 percent of his passes.

    . After that injury, he completed 58.2 percent of his passes.



    Palmer would be ideal as your backup QB.

    See random facts

    In his last eight starts last season, Carson Palmer was fifth in passing yards, seventh in completion percentage, ninth in completions, 10th in attempts, fourth in yards per attempt, tied for second in passing plays of more than 25 yards and tied for 12th in touchdown passes, and he had Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey on the field at the same time in only five games.

    . Palmer was also tied for eighth in interceptions, and Oakland has a new offensive coordinator and head coach, but still. Palmer is going 21st among QBs in early drafts on ESPN.com.



    As for lloyd. Brady should throw for 4800 - 5000 yards. You figure Welker will have 12 - 1300 yards. gronk - 11- 1200. Hernandez - 8 - 900. That still leaves 14 - 1500 yards available. I could see Lloyd getting 1000 yards and 7 or 8 TDs. Thats a pretty great value in the 18th round.

    Random lloyd facts

    Since 2008, there have been 20 receivers with more than 65 targets of at least 21 yards downfield. The only one not to drop a deep ball? Brandon Lloyd (88 targets).



    Over the past two seasons, with Josh McDaniels as his head coach or primary offensive coordinator, Lloyd was the most targeted receiver on throws deeper than 20 yards downfield, with 73 such targets.

    Calvin Johnson was second with 64.

    Lloyd has done this with Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, A.J. Feeley and Kellen Clemens as his quarterbacks.

    Lloyd's quarterback this year is Tom Brady. And his offensive coordinator is Josh McDaniels.

    And one last blurb about lloyd from berry today.

    Brandon Lloyd, WR, Patriots: (6th, late 3rd/early 4th): There are three schools of thought regarding Mr. Brandon Lloyd. The more conservative approach (and one drafters seem to be taking) is that there are only so many targets to go around in New England and, while he'll have some good games, he'll also have some where he'll disappear, and for that, he's worth no more than being a low-end No. 2 , the 17th wideout off the board at the top of Round 6. There's another school of thought that stipulates that now that he's been reunited with Josh McDaniels and combined with Tom Brady, the sky is the limit. And, of course, there's a school of thought among bitter Redskins fans who can't believe this is the same guy who stunk in Washington (23 games, zero touchdowns). I am a member of the latter two groups. But let's focus on the positive. Big year coming for Brandon Lloyd.



    So what's fair to expect from a Josh McDaniels deep threat? In the 23 games that Lloyd has played for McDaniels, he has been targeted 236 targets, or 10.2 a game, 163 in a 16-game season. In 2007, the last time Josh McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for Tom Brady, Randy Moss had 23 touchdowns and over 1,400 yards. And he was targeted 159 times. Hmm. We may be onto something.



    Now, both with the '07 Patriots and when he had Lloyd in Denver and St. Louis, McDaniels did not have the array of weapons to utilize that he has this season with Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker and a pretty decent pass-catching trio of running backs hanging around. That's why our projection for Lloyd is a very reasonable 103 targets. But that's just a projection. What if Welker or one of the tight ends gets injured? What if Bill Belichick suddenly decides he doesn't want his running backs catching balls? A lot can happen in a 16-game season, and for Lloyd, 160 targets isn't unattainable, it's merely his ceiling; unlikely is not impossible.



    But here's the thing. Lloyd doesn't need 160 targets to have a great season. Remember, he was the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy in 2010 with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow throwing passes to him. My 100 Facts You Need to Know column had some good Lloyd stats (among them: most deep targets in the NFL the last two years. Yes, more than Calvin Johnson), but here's one stat I didn't include, courtesy of John Parolin from ESPN Stats & Information: We know that Lloyd lines up wide or "outside the numbers" almost exclusively. Well, over the last two seasons, Lloyd has been underthrown on throws outside the numbers 27 times, more than any other receiver in football. In fact, Lloyd's quarterbacks over that time frame have completed just 48 percent of their total passes to Lloyd outside the numbers. Meanwhile, Tom Brady, completed 64.2 percent of those throws the past three seasons.



    At worst, Lloyd is the deep threat on one of the best offenses in football, whose playcaller loves and trusts him. At best? He's Randy Moss, circa 2007. Anywhere in between is a fine return for the sixth round, or even earlier to make sure you get him, as I'll be doing in my drafts.
     
  18. Pigdango

    Pigdango Silence, you mortal Fuck!
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    [​IMG]

    There's only one relevant fact about Brandon Lloyd: 1 Good Season.

    Let's check the math on the Brady 4,500 - 5,000 yards:
    Brady threw for 5,200 yards last year. Let's give him the same this year. Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez combined for 3,800 of those yards, and that's with Hernandez missing two games and Welker missing one. I don't rate fantasy players based on injuries to other players, so let's assume they all play 16, which puts their production at 4,000 yards. That leaves just 1,200 to go around. The RB's will scarf 400 of them, as they did last year. Now we're down to 800, which is pretty darn close to Lloyd's production from last year - and Deion Branch's. So your downside is he's about as good as Branch and your upside is he's about the same as he was last year. That's the cap in this offense with this personnel.

    It's preposterous to suggest he'll be even close to Moss's 2007 numbers, because that was done in a year when their TE's combined for 450 yards. The QB and the OC may be the same, but the personnel is different, starting with the fact that Brandon Lloyd may be a lot of things, but he's no fucking Randy Moss. I can't get over how ludicrous that is. Whoever wrote that should be fired.

    Let's take a look at the one year wonder's one year: Hmmm... the Broncos were 4-12 and had the worst defense in the league. So the Broncos were in constant catch up mode and Lloyd tore the shit out of a bunch of prevent defenses. The Patriots defense stinks, but it's not the worst in the league. How did Welker, Hernandez, and Gronk do for the Broncos that year? Oh that's right, they didn't play for them. Orton's only other choices were Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, and....Tim Tebow?!!? Oh wait, Gronkowski was on the team, it was just Dan Gronkowski.

    By the way, Bill Belicheck is the offensive coordinator for the Patriots. They can give the kid his title and his clipboard back, but no way is Belicheck giving him the keys to the car.

    Full disclosure: I'm a Broncos fan, so any suggestion that Josh McDaniels is anything but the stupidest cunt in the history of stupid cunts will be argued about as vehemently as humanly possible. It's nice of Belicheck to make him the Waterboy again, but that still doesn't make Lloyd anything but the 4th option in a 3 option offense.
     
  19. luckie1710

    luckie1710 Registered User

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    FYI - sorry for the long ass novel there

    I dont think lloyd will match Moss's 2007 season. I totally agree with you on that one. I just cut and pasted the entire blurb. Not just the part to fit my argument. I think Lloyd will have 1000 yards and 7 - 8 TDs. 1000 yards annd 8 tds is still a great value in the 19th round of your fantasy draft.

    I think Berry is over valuing him and your under valuing him here. He is a lot better then ocho and a lot better then Branch.

    And all those comments were from Berry at espn. I was reading him today and that was embedded in my head.
     
  20. Guilty Spark

    Guilty Spark It's freeing and refreshing

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    Foster at 4 and Lloyd at 19. Can't not keep the #1 overall pick especially with how shallow RB is. Lloyd should have a big year and the value gap between round 19 and his actual ADP is huge. For the other 2 keep Brown and Austin. Lock it in.

    Keeping any of those QBs is a waste of time. And if you can't get one of the big 3 QBs you're better off waiting and loading up at other positions.
     
  21. jagsfans

    jagsfans Registered User

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    Yea both of these leagues are 12 team leagues. If I trade any of my declared keepers they do retain their round value/

    I can't get one of the big 3 QB's b/c they are likely being kept. I'm projecting the QB's to be available when I pick 3rd in the first round to be M. Schaub, P. Manning, J. Cutler, A. Dalton and R. Griffth III. I'm leaning towards keeping Lloyd, Brown and Austin as well as the obvious choice of Foster. So I'll have to determine which of those QB's are viable in the 1st Round.
     
  22. Don the Radio Guy

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    Shouldn't you be more worried about your team possibly killing each other?
     

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