OpieRadio Logo
Compound Media Logo
Jim Norton Logo

Real Clear Politics Poll-of-polls: Mitt takes electoral collage lead

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Atomic Fireball, Oct 18, 2012.

  1. Atomic Fireball

    Atomic Fireball Well-Known Member
    Donator

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2005
    Messages:
    6,063
    Likes Received:
    3,997
  2. Hack Hawk Down

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2009
    Messages:
    1,294
    Likes Received:
    17
    First of all, RCP is just a poll of polls. Not that accurate.

    You need someone who actually ANALYZES data and is not politically affiliated like Nate Silver at www.fivethirtyeight.com.

    And Gallup, according to Fordham University was the 20th most accurate pollster (out of 25) last election.



    Anyhow, national polls don't matter. This is like 2004. It will likely come down to Ohio.

    Even this model, under an Obama disaster where he loses EVERY swing state except Iowa (where he has always lead) and Ohio (where he has kicked ass in early voting and 19% have already voted early), he still wins the Presidency with 271 electoral votes:

    [​IMG]

    Why do you think he is spending way more money there, with more Union people and students working polls and registering voters, and challenging voting laws in the SCOTUS? Why do you think Bill Clinton and Springsteen are there? Obama has 120 offices in Ohio for getting out the vote. Some have been open since 2008.

    Plus Ohio has lots of colleges, and out of state kids who go to school there give vote in Ohio. Ohio state has 56,000 students alone. Why do you think 50% of the newly registered voters in Ohio are under 30? (More than any state). They registered 10,000 in one week in September when Obama had a huge rally. Obama has really focused on urban blacks, women, union workers and students to win Ohio again.

    If he wins it he's in.
     
    #2 Hack Hawk Down, Oct 19, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2012
  3. Don the Radio Guy

    Donator

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2006
    Messages:
    69,628
    Likes Received:
    5,082
    Half of the threads HHD starts are polls. Then a poll comes up that makes his boy look bad, and suddenly polls aren't accurate. Priceless.
     
    Taint Stench and Neckbeard like this.
  4. Hack Hawk Down

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2009
    Messages:
    1,294
    Likes Received:
    17
    Unlike you I have actually read and studied this shit. Not just followed numbers like a retard.

    Some history from statistician Nate Silver on Gallup sucking:


    "Usually, when a poll is an outlier relative to the consensus, its results turn out badly.

    You do not need to look any further than Gallup’s track record over the past two election cycles to find a demonstration of this.

    In 2008, the Gallup poll put Mr. Obama 11 points ahead of John McCain on the eve of that November’s election.

    That was tied for Mr. Obama’s largest projected margin of victory among any of the 15 or so national polls that were released just in advance of the election. The average of polls put Mr. Obama up by about seven points.

    The average did a good job; Mr. Obama won the popular vote by seven points. The Gallup poll had a four-point miss, however.

    In 2010, Gallup put Republicans ahead by 15 points on the national Congressional ballot, higher than other polling firms, which put Republicans an average of eight or nine points ahead instead.

    In fact, Republicans won the popular vote for the United States House by about seven percentage points — fairly close to the average of polls, but representing another big miss for Gallup.

    Apart from Gallup’s final poll not having been especially accurate in recent years, it has often been a wild ride to get there. Their polls, for whatever reason, have often found implausibly large swings in the race.

    In 2000, for example, Gallup had George W. Bush 16 points ahead among likely voters in polling it conducted in early August. By Sept. 20, about six weeks later, they had Al Gore up by 10 points instead: a 26-point swing toward Mr. Gore over the course of a month and a half. No other polling firm showed a swing remotely that large.

    Then in October 2000, Gallup showed a 14-point swing toward Mr. Bush over the course of a few days, and had him ahead by 13 points on Oct. 27 — just 10 days before an election that ended in a virtual tie.

    In 1996, Gallup had Bill Clinton’s margin over Bob Dole increasing to 25 points from nine points over the course of four days.

    After the Republican convention in 2008, Gallup had John McCain leading Mr. Obama by as many as 10 points among likely voters. Although some other polls also had Mr. McCain pulling ahead in the race, no other polling firm ever gave him larger than a four-point lead.

    It’s not clear what causes such large swings, although Gallup’s likely voter model may have something to do with it.

    Even its registered voter numbers can be volatile, however. In early September of this year, after the Democratic convention, Gallup had Mr. Obama’s lead among registered voters going from seven points to zero points over the course of a week — and then reverting to six points just as quickly. Most other polling firms showed a roughly steady race during this time period.

    Because Gallup’s polls usually take large sample sizes, statistical variance alone probably cannot account these sorts of shifts. It seems to be an endemic issue with their methodology.

    To be clear, I would not recommend that you literally just disregard the Gallup poll. You should consider it — but consider it in context.

    The context is that its most recent results differ substantially from the dozens of other state and national polls about the campaign. It’s much more likely that Gallup is wrong and everyone else is right than the other way around."
     
  5. Don the Radio Guy

    Donator

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2006
    Messages:
    69,628
    Likes Received:
    5,082
    How much longer are we going to have to put up with your dishonest shilling?
     
    Neckbeard likes this.
  6. OccupyWackbag

    OccupyWackbag Registered User

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2011
    Messages:
    3,416
    Likes Received:
    189
    Hey remember the thread where he posted an article after editing out the part that didnt conform to his agenda.

    I had to scroll, scroll, scroll to find it. Hes been absent from it for some reason...
     
  7. whiskeyguy

    whiskeyguy PR representative for Drunk Whiskeyguy.

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2010
    Messages:
    36,186
    Likes Received:
    21,789
    He was also noticeably absent from the thread regarding the polling official who "jokingly" guaranteed a Democrat the election.

    But of course there's no reason to worry about that... the polling official wasn't a stupid 16 year old girl outside Costco, who is much more likely to steal an election.
     
  8. Don the Radio Guy

    Donator

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2006
    Messages:
    69,628
    Likes Received:
    5,082
    Remember the thread where he was a total faggot? Oh wait. That's every thread.
     
  9. ruckstande

    ruckstande Posts mostly from the shitter.

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2005
    Messages:
    14,665
    Likes Received:
    4,232
    He involves himself in things like Al Sharpton.
     
  10. Hack Hawk Down

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2009
    Messages:
    1,294
    Likes Received:
    17
    What's dishonest about what I wrote up there, board op?
     
  11. ruckstande

    ruckstande Posts mostly from the shitter.

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2005
    Messages:
    14,665
    Likes Received:
    4,232
    I think he's basing that on your previous dishonesty of editing out information on a former article that you posted because you didn't find the information positively weighed in your favor and how when called out on said dishonesty you conveniently ignored said thread.
     
  12. MayrMeninoCrash

    MayrMeninoCrash Liberal Psycopath

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2004
    Messages:
    24,082
    Likes Received:
    8,342
    I just want to say I thoroughly enjoy how HHD makes Don lose his shit every time he posts. It takes quite a bit of back-and-forth for me to ever evoke the dreaded "Dishonest Jizzbag" insult from Mr. Thetrucker. :action-sm
     
  13. BIV

    BIV I'm Biv Dick Black, the Over Poster.

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2002
    Messages:
    77,737
    Likes Received:
    27,104
    You have to be a real retard to out retard a libtard. :)
     
  14. caniseeyourtaint

    caniseeyourtaint Passive agressive douche

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2004
    Messages:
    2,465
    Likes Received:
    168
  15. Party Rooster

    Party Rooster Unleash The Beast

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2005
    Messages:
    40,304
    Likes Received:
    7,462
    [​IMG]
     
  16. Begbie

    Begbie Wackbag Generalissimo

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2003
    Messages:
    17,659
    Likes Received:
    4,989
    I'll do the research for you, Don.

    Here ya go, HHD...a rather comprehensive sample of your posts from the previous 30 days pumping up these same polls you're claiming don't matter, in this thread:


    This is my favorite because it's in response to something I posted...and it COMPLETELY contradicts the post in this thread (PS the first sentence is sarcastic, BTW):

    The following two posts were an attempt at making a bet with me on who would win the election, because you were so sure Obama would win due to the polling data and the polling history during the Reagan-Carter race:

    Now beat it troll.
     
    Party Rooster likes this.
  17. Party Rooster

    Party Rooster Unleash The Beast

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2005
    Messages:
    40,304
    Likes Received:
    7,462
    I'm sure you'll be gone anyway after the election. I would imagine your internship on the Committee to Re-elect the President will cease to exist. But there's always Hillary 2016!
     
    Begbie likes this.
  18. Party Rooster

    Party Rooster Unleash The Beast

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2005
    Messages:
    40,304
    Likes Received:
    7,462
    Have you tried posting smarmy-captioned funny pictures? Works for me. :cool:
     
  19. MayrMeninoCrash

    MayrMeninoCrash Liberal Psycopath

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2004
    Messages:
    24,082
    Likes Received:
    8,342
    Nate Silver has a message for all the haters (Probably applies to a couple here that tend to use this word as well ;))

    [​IMG]
     
    peewee likes this.
  20. Psychopath

    Psychopath Plata O Plomo

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2008
    Messages:
    17,679
    Likes Received:
    3,344
    Begbie, did you post his shitty attempt at passing an edited story?
     
  21. Chino Kapone

    Chino Kapone Yo, whats wrong wit da beer we got?

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2005
    Messages:
    16,959
    Likes Received:
    2,196
    [mammy]What's goin on in this thread?


    OH LAWD![/mammy]
     
  22. jnoble

    jnoble Lingering longer for a longering linger

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2005
    Messages:
    8,231
    Likes Received:
    4,093
    I have a gut feeling that Romney is going to win pretty much every swing state and maybe even Michigan. And maybe possibly my own New Jersey which isn't quite as solid blue for Obama as previousy assumed. Imagine that.

    If Romney wins big I'm looking forward to seeing all the lib heads explode both on cable TV and the ones I know on FB.
     
  23. Don the Radio Guy

    Donator

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2006
    Messages:
    69,628
    Likes Received:
    5,082
    Obama is imploding. It's hilarious.
     
  24. Neckbeard

    Neckbeard I'm Team Piggy!

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2011
    Messages:
    24,726
    Likes Received:
    15,097
    Electoral collage? How is he with decoupages?
    LINGIDY LONGIDY
    Double arts and crafts!
     

Share This Page