Take a stats class Anthony

OnePremier

It don't make you a bad person.
Dec 20, 2004
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#1
Okay, someone's gotta say it.

Anthony, you and every other blackjack player who sneers at someone for not hitting on a 15 when a dealer shows a ten need to understand something. They're called odds. And I'm referring to actual mathematical odds.

Whether I choose to hit on a 15 or not does NOT STATISTICALLY AFFECT YOUR HAND WHATSOEVER. No matter what... the next card that comes out of the stack is completely random. It has no statistically measurable affect on your hand. At all. (If you're counting cards, then thats another story.)

I'll give it to you that it would be wiser to follow the rules (hit on <16 if dealer shows 7 or greater) since you will win more often, even if it's barely more often ( 27.9% win if you hit vs. a 26.6% win if you stand), but still there's no need to get pissed at some guy who wants to stand on 16 and hope the dealer busts. What he chooses to do has no affect on you hand whatsoever. Point and laugh at him cause he's not playing the odds, but for fuck sakes, dont get pissed at him cause you think he's fucking up your hand.

/rant
 

OnePremier

It don't make you a bad person.
Dec 20, 2004
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#3
I like this one too... from a casino website..:

Myth #2: That third base player is killing me.

The Reason: The dealer shows a weak 5 upcard and all the players including yourself make the right play and stand on all stiff totals. The third baseman, who is the last player to act before the dealer, ponders whether to hit or stand on 16. He hits, the dealer gives him a picture card, and then the dealer draws a 6 to her 15 for a 21, beating everyone. Oh, how you would like to strangle the third base player. If the dummy would have stood like he was supposed to, the dealer would have gotten the picture card instead and broke and everyone would have won. Don't tell me bad players don't effect whether or not I win or lose.

The Truth: It's absolutely true that dumb plays made by dumb players can effect the outcome of a hand for everyone else. But it has been proven mathematically that it is just as likely that a dumb play could result in the entire table winning. The player in the above example could have just as easily gotten the 6, leaving the picture card for the dealer to bust. While dumb plays can upset smart players, it has no mathematical long term effect on a player's expected outcome. You always curse the stupid player that caused you to lose, but do you ever congratulate him when his stupid play causes you to win? If the terrible play of others effects you emotionally so that you start to make playing mistakes, then my advise is to leave the table and play elsewhere.
 
Dec 12, 2007
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#4
I bet the casino makes up false facts to make people lose. I know I would.
 

Creasy Bear

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#6
There's nothing the casinos love more than the people with "a system".
 

Gonzoid

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#7
Opie had a good point that Ant only acknowledged when a dumb hand cost him money...I am sure there were a few hands played that were not by the book that made him a few bucks as well.

Ant also contradicted himself too by saying how you play as a group on the table...then the very next sentence he contradicted that by saying he plays his own way!

Here is one thing I do not agree on...If the dealer is showing a 2 or a 3, and I have a weak hand (<15) I usually will hit. WAY too often, I have stayed on something less than 15 with the dealer showing 2/3 and THEY always manage to pull a 18,19,20 out of taht since they have so many cards to work with!
 

dodisman

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Feb 20, 2005
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#8
As a gambler I know how Ant FEELS...but mathematically he is wrong; when you're at a table you can't help but feel like someone is 'taking your card' or playing wrong...but Ant is not correct when looking at it objectively. Bad players can not ruin a table. PERIOD

Of course if someone steps in and hits 'when they shouldn't they can effect that deal but just as Opie was saying (and Ant pushed it aside) that same player can have the opposite effect...Distribution Spread would be such that a player that isn't playing by the book will negatively AND positively affect a hand...but Ant (and most people) only focus on the 'fuck ups'
 

progambler2

Registered User
Oct 28, 2007
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#9
Okay, someone's gotta say it.

Anthony, you and every other blackjack player who sneers at someone for not hitting on a 15 when a dealer shows a ten need to understand something. They're called odds. And I'm referring to actual mathematical odds.

Whether I choose to hit on a 15 or not does NOT STATISTICALLY AFFECT YOUR HAND WHATSOEVER. No matter what... the next card that comes out of the stack is completely random. It has no statistically measurable affect on your hand. At all. (If you're counting cards, then thats another story.)

I'll give it to you that it would be wiser to follow the rules (hit on <16 if dealer shows 7 or greater) since you will win more often, even if it's barely more often ( 27.9% win if you hit vs. a 26.6% win if you stand), but still there's no need to get pissed at some guy who wants to stand on 16 and hope the dealer busts. What he chooses to do has no affect on you hand whatsoever. Point and laugh at him cause he's not playing the odds, but for fuck sakes, dont get pissed at him cause you think he's fucking up your hand.

/rant
Already posted the same thing in the listening thread.

I was shouted down by those who think every answer should be a soundbite rather than a detailed explanation.
Expect the same in this thread.

Virtually every caller was basically clueless.

Why call in if you have no clue what you are talking about?

Even the guy who tried to explain the fact that a players bad play doesnt effect your long term results managed to fuck up when he said the
pass/dont pass line in craps is the best bet in the casino.
The house edge is about 1.4% but there are several better bets in the casinos. (Baccarat and BJ are just two for starters)

Most casino shoe BJ games are 6 or 8 decks.
The house edge varies depending on number of decks and rules in place but its normally always under 1% if you play perfect "Basic Strategy"
Basic Strategy is a computer calculated perfect play grid.

The above is only for those who are "gambling" and not using any kind of method that gains an edge over the casino such as card counting or shuffle tracking.

The player who doesnt hit stiff hands such as 13 vs Dealer 10, actually helps
a card counter when the remaining decks are rich in 10`s and Aces.
He doesnt eat as many cards per hand so the CC will get more hands in the play zone.
 
Jul 15, 2005
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#10
the thing is that it can hurt you, but it can also help. say that there are 3 really bad players ahead of you who all hit on 15. all 3 bust with Q, 10, K. There are now 3 less face cards in the deck for you to work on your 8.

At the same time, those three players could all hit on 15, get 3, 4, 5 and now you have a greater chance of pulling a face card from the smaller deck.

the reason it doesnt really matter who is at the table with you is because you will not know how it will help/hurt you until those cards are dealt.

If you are playing for money then the chances are that you will only remember the negative outcomes due to the "bad" players next to you, so that is what you will dwell on. not the time they hit on an 18 and got a 4, giving you a face card afterwards.
 

In RON We Trust

We Trust In RON
Jun 12, 2007
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#11
If the dealer shows a 5 or 6 ,and you have 12 or more, you stand pat.

That's it!

If everyone follows this rule, no one gets pissed.
 

OnePremier

It don't make you a bad person.
Dec 20, 2004
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Sacramento, CA
#12
exactly.

I'm sorry, it's just people who are passionate about bullshit and call dissenters idiots annoy the fuck out of me.

Everyone who tried to argue in Anthony's favor spewed out the same bullshit i've heard everyone in the casino say. Not one of them could back it up mathematically. Everything they were arguing was about how you should hit, and that statistically it's favorable. And that's true. But thats not the argument. The argument is does the way I play affect your hands? And no they don't. We're not arguing abortion here... this isn't an opinion thing. What Ant's trying to do is akin to trying to argue that 2+2 = 5. And his logic is that everyone is an dummy and an asshole who don't agree with him.

<edit> technically his play will affect your hand, but it will help as much as hurt statistically.
 

dodisman

Registered User
Feb 20, 2005
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#13
the thing is that it can hurt you, but it can also help. say that there are 3 really bad players ahead of you who all hit on 15. all 3 bust with Q, 10, K. There are now 3 less face cards in the deck for you to work on your 8.

At the same time, those three players could all hit on 15, get 3, 4, 5 and now you have a greater chance of pulling a face card from the smaller deck.

the reason it doesnt really matter who is at the table with you is because you will not know how it will help/hurt you until those cards are dealt.

If you are playing for money then the chances are that you will only remember the negative outcomes due to the "bad" players next to you, so that is what you will dwell on. not the time they hit on an 18 and got a 4, giving you a face card afterwards.
Exactly. People feel more comfortable at a table thinking that everyone is playing with the same skills and therefore they keep the edge...when in reality some douche walks up and makes some fuck ups and wins the table some cash might not get too much attention...but if he kills a shoe or a few hands with those same hits, then THOSE are the ones people remember...Ant isn't unique in his opinion...its just not correct statistically.
 

dodisman

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#14
They should get Ben Mezrich to call in...he'd set the record straight. He would agree probably that retard players are annoying but he wouldnt agree with Ant's position today at all.
 

Hoagie

I suggest you tread lightly
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#15
I don't count cards so I actually prefer more aggressive players that hit when they're supposed to. Just because it puts more cards out so I can keep track of whether alot of high, medium, or low cards come out. But it doesn't really a difference how other people play at the table. You still can't know what the next card will be for sure and the principals don't change. Betting is still the most important thing. It doesn't matter if what other players do, you're still trying to put as much money in play as you can when the odds are in your favor and minimizing losses the rest of the time.
 

Creasy Bear

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#16
Any person with a clear understanding of statistics will quickly realize that the most effective strategy to employee when gambling in a casino is as follows...

Put your wallet back in your pocket and go home.
 

progambler2

Registered User
Oct 28, 2007
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#17
the thing is that it can hurt you, but it can also help. say that there are 3 really bad players ahead of you who all hit on 15. all 3 bust with Q, 10, K. There are now 3 less face cards in the deck for you to work on your 8.

At the same time, those three players could all hit on 15, get 3, 4, 5 and now you have a greater chance of pulling a face card from the smaller deck.

the reason it doesnt really matter who is at the table with you is because you will not know how it will help/hurt you until those cards are dealt.

If you are playing for money then the chances are that you will only remember the negative outcomes due to the "bad" players next to you, so that is what you will dwell on. not the time they hit on an 18 and got a 4, giving you a face card afterwards.
Bingo........... its called selective memory........... here is an example.

I know a guy who is a dealer and he swears that players should stand on 12 vs a dealer 2
It can be proven by simulation programs (running billions of hands) that you lose more money long term standing rather than hitting.

Yet the dealer over a 20 year career has recalled more of the gamblers who were bummed because they hit rather than those who lost because they stood.
 

OnePremier

It don't make you a bad person.
Dec 20, 2004
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#18
If the dealer shows a 5 or 6 ,and you have 12 or more, you stand pat.

That's it!

If everyone follows this rule, no one gets pissed.
Let these dopes get pissed because of some wacky gambling superstition. I'll play how I wanna play, even if it is dumb. What I choose to do doesn't affect them.

Shit, I'll follow them around and sit at their tables and stand on a 13 with a dealer showing a ten just to drive them crazy. Kinda like teasin' a retard.
 

progambler2

Registered User
Oct 28, 2007
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#19
Any person with a clear understanding of statistics will quickly realize that the most effective strategy to employee when gambling in a casino is as follows...

Put your wallet back in your pocket and go home.
100% wrong.

Most of the people who are professional gamblers have a VERY clear understanding of statistics, probabilty and risk.

Every game offered in casinos is legally beatable in some form.
(ie there is proven mathematical player edge in the right situation)

You wont find many books on the above because there is more money in beating casinos than writing books.
 

dodisman

Registered User
Feb 20, 2005
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#20
People who believe what Ant was spouting off are the same people who believe that those Digital Projections of past Roulette Number Wins can effect what tables to hit for cash...

"Hey that table has had 10 REDS in a row...let's go bet the farm on BLACK"...dumb.
 

fiuspacey

Momus - God of Mockery
Oct 13, 2004
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#22
I wonder how many of the people throwing out statistical logic have casinos sending jets out to them and putting them and their families up for the weekend?

I love blackjack and yes, I subscribe to the "right" way of playing and I get annoyed when someone at the table seems to be taking potentially busting cards away from the dealer. I don't necessarily get as mad as Ant does though.

However, how many of us play $6,000 - $10,000 per hand? When you're playing with those special chips you don't really want someone at the table playing a way that makes you nervous.
 

seeinred

White Death
Apr 29, 2007
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#23
100% wrong.

Most of the people who are professional gamblers have a VERY clear understanding of statistics, probabilty and risk.

Every game offered in casinos is legally beatable in some form.
(ie there is proven mathematical player edge in the right situation)

You wont find many books on the above because there is more money in beating casinos than writing books.
The only thing I've seen on people beating roulette involves cheating, using a sensor of some sort measuring speed and friction and watching the wheel all day to have better odds on where the ball will land. Is there a legal way to beat roullete?

As for Ant, I think it's more of a superstitious thing than anything, and any gambler probably has them. Even though it statistically doesn't effect the outcome, it's just something the "good" gamblers don't like to see.
 

dodisman

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Feb 20, 2005
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#24
However, how many of us play $6,000 - $10,000 per hand? When you're playing with those special chips you don't really want someone at the table playing a way that makes you nervous.
True...but then if you are playing those hands you can easily get yourself a table to yourself to not allow for the random douche to show up...OR just play multiple hands to fill up the seats...and I know Ant has said he does that but if you are so adamant that retards ruin a table then dont open yourself up to a situation like that...or just play the money wheel and shut it.
 

Hoagie

I suggest you tread lightly
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#25
The only thing I've seen on people beating roulette involves cheating, using a sensor of some sort measuring speed and friction and watching the wheel all day to have better odds on where the ball will land. Is there a legal way to beat roullete?
No. It's the worst odds on the floor. A sucker's game.