The 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

domelogic

Registered User
Actually, I'm pretty surprised. She was acting like the buffoonery all around her was completely normal and she was doing a great job.
Honestly, I didn't.

Exactly. None of us could imagine that. Gender, race all in her favor. So the question is why? Something must have happened or would happen if she did not resign. Just my guess
 

jnoble

Lingering longer for a longering linger
Exactly. None of us could imagine that. Gender, race all in her favor. So the question is why? Something must have happened or would happen if she did not resign. Just my guess
I think the Florida recounts got such intense national attention and particularly on her boobery plus her past shananagins that she really had no choice. Either voluntarily resign now or she would've been removed anyway especially now that the governor is another Republican. May as well leave without having to be dragged out leaving claw marks on the floor
 

Jacuzzi Billy

Watching PTI
Donator
Hyphen Girl is already upset about getting called out for her stupidity. She better grow some thicker skin pretty quick.
 

Creasy Bear

gorgeousness and gorgeousity made flesh
Donator
Hyphen Girl is already upset about getting called out for her stupidity. She better grow some thicker skin pretty quick.
Yep, she's griping that her every utterance of idiocy is going to be picked apart.

Welcome to the big leagues, nitwit.
 

Creasy Bear

gorgeousness and gorgeousity made flesh
Donator
I just found out that Hyphen-Teeth lives in an apartment in the Bronx that belongs to her family, and she's been paying $800/month rent. $800/month in the Bronx, where the average rent is over $2000/month.

But, ya see, she's working-class gal from the Bronx who knows the struggle.

Grew up in Westchester, went to a fancy white-people high school, was handed hundreds of thousands of dollars in college STEM scholarship money(that she squandered on dumbbell degrees), worked a hobby job/internship on a loser political campaign, and then became a bartender who lived in mommy's apartment and paid half-rent.

There's a 'Regular Jane pulling herself up by her bootstraps' story if I ever heard one.
 

Floyd1977

Registered User
I think the Florida recounts got such intense national attention and particularly on her boobery plus her past shananagins that she really had no choice. Either voluntarily resign now or she would've been removed anyway especially now that the governor is another Republican. May as well leave without having to be dragged out leaving claw marks on the floor
You know for all the Hullaballoo over the Florida recounts there seemed to be very little media attention around the fact that Scott and DeSantis were ultimately declared the winners, hmmmmmmm......
 

Pigdango

Silence, you mortal Fuck!
Donator
You know for all the Hullaballoo over the Florida recounts there seemed to be very little media attention around the fact that Scott and DeSantis were ultimately declared the winners, hmmmmmmm......
Most of the coverage I saw was "Blue Wave grows larger as Democrats add more House seats, while Republicans one additional Senate seat."

The media is also trying to spin it that the Mississippi runoff is in danger of going to the Democrats, citing "secret polling." :haha7:

The Democrats did pick up more seats than I thought they would. The count stands at 232 to 198, with 5 races still undecided. The Republican candidate leads in 4 of the 5 races. Late breaking news has the Democrat conceding in Texas 23 and the Democrat being called in New York 22. So call it 233 to 199 with three undecided, with the Republican leading all 3:

Georgia 7th District

New York 27th Districts

Utah 4th District

The New York 27th is my district, and is far closer than expected in the typically Dark Red suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester. Chris Collins getting indicted for insider trading cost him my vote. I don't vote along party lines, I vote for the best candidate. Usually that's the Republican, but the FBI's case seems somewhat air tight, so Collins should have quit the race. I always joke that my vote doesn't matter where I live, but this time it really might!

I guess Nate McMurray traveled to DC for Freshman Orientation but was kicked out. :haha7::haha7:
 

jnoble

Lingering longer for a longering linger
Most of the coverage I saw was "Blue Wave grows larger as Democrats add more House seats, while Republicans one additional Senate seat."

The media is also trying to spin it that the Mississippi runoff is in danger of going to the Democrats, citing "secret polling." :haha7:

The Democrats did pick up more seats than I thought they would. The count stands at 232 to 198, with 5 races still undecided. The Republican candidate leads in 4 of the 5 races. Late breaking news has the Democrat conceding in Texas 23 and the Democrat being called in New York 22. So call it 233 to 199 with three undecided, with the Republican leading all 3:

Georgia 7th District

New York 27th Districts

Utah 4th District

The New York 27th is my district, and is far closer than expected in the typically Dark Red suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester. Chris Collins getting indicted for insider trading cost him my vote. I don't vote along party lines, I vote for the best candidate. Usually that's the Republican, but the FBI's case seems somewhat air tight, so Collins should have quit the race. I always joke that my vote doesn't matter where I live, but this time it really might!

I guess Nate McMurray traveled to DC for Freshman Orientation but was kicked out. :haha7::haha7:
I can't see how that Mississippi runoff on the 27th would go to the Dem. The only reason the Dem didn't get blown out in the first race was because there were two R's on the ballot who split the vote, not some weirdo third party candidate
 

Hog's Big Ben

Getting ass-***** in The Octagon, brother.
Donator
If we just get 50K to leave their shithole blue states for Florida (and other red states), we can finally turn them into shithole blue states...


This scumbag has lost two straight democratic primaries, but obviously, she's hopeful she'll have more luck if there were more Democrats in the state (also why they desperately want felons and immigrants voting)
That dingleberry is still at it. California can singlehandedly ruin a dozen more states!

 

Creasy Bear

gorgeousness and gorgeousity made flesh
Donator
That dingleberry is still at it. California can singlehandedly ruin a dozen more states!

Phase1: One million Democrats leave California because they're overtaxed and there's scant job opportunities because business is over-regulated

Phase 2: Those one million Californians move to states with lower taxes and better job opportunities due to less regulations, and then they do to those other states exactly what they did to California.

Phase 3: Profit!!!
 

THE FEZ MAN

as a matter of fact i dont have 5$
Phase1: One million Democrats leave California because they're overtaxed and there's scant job opportunities because business is over-regulated

Phase 2: Those one million Californians move to states with lower taxes and better job opportunities due to less regulations, and then they do to those other states exactly what they did to California.

Phase 3: Profit!!!
They actually think they are right, it’s baffling
 

Floyd1977

Registered User
Phase1: One million Democrats leave California because they're overtaxed and there's scant job opportunities because business is over-regulated

Phase 2: Those one million Californians move to states with lower taxes and better job opportunities due to less regulations, and then they do to those other states exactly what they did to California.

Phase 3: Profit!!!
Yeah pretty much. Won't happen overnight but it does seem like once reliably red states are inching toward blue. Colorado is complely gone, the senate race in AZ doesn't seem like a great sign of things to come there. Even TX with Beto coming close to unseating Cruz is concerning. And if you flip TX, GOP permanently loses the White House.
 

KRSOne

Registered User
Yeah pretty much. Won't happen overnight but it does seem like once reliably red states are inching toward blue. Colorado is complely gone, the senate race in AZ doesn't seem like a great sign of things to come there. Even TX with Beto coming close to unseating Cruz is concerning. And if you flip TX, GOP permanently loses the White House.
I started noticing a lot of Californians moving to CO in the early 2000's. I would say it officially went completely blue in 2016. So 13-16 years and from what I remember CO was center right, it was never all the way to the right like Texas so it will probably take longer for Texas to go unless they speed it up by dumping half of Central America into Texas and make them voters.

I guess I'll have try and move if they ever criminalize me for owning things that are currently legal.
 

Pigdango

Silence, you mortal Fuck!
Donator
I've been reading that the Dem gains in the house are more or less in line with historical averages.
Here's the history. Ones that line up with Trump are in Bold:

Taft (R) dropped 56 seats and lost control of the House in 1910
Wilson (D) dropped 61 seats in 1914 but kept a small majority. Dropped another 22 in 1918 to lose the House.
Harding (R) dropped 77 seats but kept control in 1922
Coolidge (R) dropped only 9 seats and kept control in 1926
Hoover (R) dropped 52 seats and lost control in 1930
Truman (D) dropped 54 seats and lost control in 1946,
but got them all back and then some in 1948. He lost 28 in 1950 but maintained control.
Eisenhower (R) dropped 18 seats and lost control in 1954, and then suffered a blood bath in 1958, losing another 48.
Kennedy (D) stayed basically flat and kept an overwhelming majority in the House and the Senate.
Johnson (D) lost 47 seats but still kept an overwhelming majority
Nixon (R) lost 12 seats but didn't have control anyway.
Ford (R) lost 48 seats but didn't have control anyway.
Carter (D) lost 15 seats but still kept an overwhelming majority
Reagan (R) lost 26 seats but didn't have control anyway. He lost another 5 in 1986 but again - didn't mean much. He did lose 8 Senate seats in 1986 to lose the majority there.
Bush (R) lost 8 seats but didn't have control anyway.
Clinton (D) dropped 54 seats and the Democrats lost control of the House for the first time in 50 years(!). He also lost 10 Senate seats. He added 4 House seats in 1998 but didn't win back the house.
Bush (R) was plus 8 in 2002 to maintain control of the House. He was -32 in 2006 to lose control of the House. He also lost the Senate that year.
Obama (D) was -63(!) in 2010 to lose the House. He lost 13 more in 2014 and lost the Senate as well.

So it's all how you spin it. Trump's losses are rather modest compared to Clinton and Obama's but that's also because both of them had a higher starting point. Clinton dropped to 204 and bounced back to 211, and Obama dropped to 193 and 188. So Trump landing at around 202 is essentially right in line with them. So I think if you want to view the House elections as a repudiation of Trump the way the 1994 and 2010 midterms were to Clinton and Obama, you could. But Trump did add Senate seats in the midterm, while Clinton and Obama both suffered devastating Senate losses. Clinton was -10 in 1994 as I mentioned and lost another 2 in 1996 for a net loss during his term of -12 and Obama lost 6 in 2010, added two back in 2012, but then lost 9 in 201 for a net loss of 13.

Based solely on the weak Democratic Nominee field, I believe Trump is in good shape for re-election in 2020. The Senate Map is less in Republicans favor in 2020 - They defend 22 seats while the Democrats defend only 12. However, there is at least one obvious opportunity for a Republican steal in 2020 - Alabama. There are potential 3 Democratic flips that I can see right now. Maine, which I believe is Susan Collins. She may be moderate enough to hold on to that seat, but Democrats are going after her already and they don't even have a candidate. Colorado and Arizona are pretty likely to flip.
 

jnoble

Lingering longer for a longering linger
The decimation of the democratic party during the Obama years is something that needs to be explored more.
That's unpossible. Dear Leader Barry's 8 years were nothing but glorious and wonderful not to mention scandal-free (**snerk**)
 

Pigdango

Silence, you mortal Fuck!
Donator
The decimation of the democratic party during the Obama years is something that needs to be explored more.
Nobody talks about it, but Obama's job approval was pretty shitty in the last three years of his Presidency. Actually throughout most of his Presidency. He had like three good cycles - His honeymoon period of course, Bin Laden's death, and he somehow peaked at just the right time in the 2012 election. The fact that Hillary didn't blame him that much or at all for her defeat in 2016 is one of the biggest clues that she plans to run in 2020.
 

KRSOne

Registered User
Nobody talks about it, but Obama's job approval was pretty shitty in the last three years of his Presidency. Actually throughout most of his Presidency. He had like three good cycles - His honeymoon period of course, Bin Laden's death, and he somehow peaked at just the right time in the 2012 election. The fact that Hillary didn't blame him that much or at all for her defeat in 2016 is one of the biggest clues that she plans to run in 2020.
In 2016 Hillary and all the dems, including Bernie, ran on everything is terrible so vote for us to fix what we created. One of Bernies biggest lines was about the wealth gap increasing. Which does happen with leftist policies. You get the very rich and the poor, the middle class is destroyed.

Hillary couldn't run on Obamas record because it was terrible. Trump gets in and gets rid of the Obama policies he could and it helps the economy. Then in the midterms the dems claim its because of Obama policies and they run on Obamas supposed economy. Even though Obama claimed there is no fixing it and Trump would need a magic wand.
 

Floyd1977

Registered User
Based solely on the weak Democratic Nominee field, I believe Trump is in good shape for re-election in 2020.
There's a lot more to consider here and I have concern that 2020 win for Trump is going to be more of a uphill battle that many of his supporters think. Right off the bat you have to expect that the Dems are going to be much more determined this time around. True, Dem enthusiasm wasn't enough to flip the senate or get (depending on how you look at it, I guess) an atypical House gain, but there should be higher Dem turnout in 2020.

Trump may now be at a sizable disadvantage in FL (which is a must win) due to allowing felons to vote. The AZ senate race probably isn't a great sign as well. If he loses FL and AZ it's over even if he keeps all the other states he won in 16. And speaking of that it wouldn't take much for the Blue Wall states that put him over the top to flip back to blue. Hell even TX could become a battleground state if you assume the same people who voted for Cruz will vote Trump and the people who voted for Beto to vote for the Dem candidate.

Another thing you have to be concerned about is if a never Trumper "conservative" decides to run as an independent (think Jeff Flake).

Then there's still the Mueller investigation. Though I don't expect he has evidence of collusion, who the fuck knows?

Plus if the Trump supporters come down with a case of the "We Got This!"-itis, that could also kill him.

The incumbent usually has the advantage, but Trump isn't exactly a usual candidate:
 
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