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Why Obama will be re-elected

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Haeder, Dec 13, 2011.

  1. Haeder

    Haeder South Dakota

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    Obama is gonna be re-elected by 3-4 points.

    Might not even have more than 50% of the popular vote if a third party candidate has a strong showing.

    Why? For the same reason that the Democrats couldn't defeat Bush in 2004: shitty opponent. Couple that with the conservative, Tea Party, moderate and Donald Trump wings of the Republican Party destroying the credibility of every candidate and you've got a solid campaign strategy for a second place finish in the 2012 presidential election.

    A billion dollars of fundraising by Obama isn't gonna hurt his cause either.

    In 2016, the Republican candidate will destroy any Democrat with Whitehouse aspirations. Until then, we're stuck with what we've got.
     
  2. Don the Radio Guy

    Donator

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    Well, now that you've spoken we can just call off the elections! Thanks for saving us so much time and money!
     
  3. Stig

    Stig Wackbag's New Favorite Heel

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    The Republicans have dropped the ball this election cycle in ways the New Jersey Generals have never even dreamed of.
     
  4. Party Rooster

    Party Rooster Unleash The Beast

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    I'll bet you $10,000 you're wrong. :icon_cool

    [​IMG]
     
  5. LastDeadMouse

    LastDeadMouse WWRBD?

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    How is this a current event?
     
  6. JonBenetRamsey

    JonBenetRamsey well shit the bed

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    yea this would be like future events err somethin tsss
     
  7. BIV

    BIV I'm Biv Dick Black, the Over Poster.

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    Because Haeder is currently a dummy?
     
  8. bb1mobile

    bb1mobile wackbag's special mod
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    Laugh all you want but I fear he's right.
     
  9. Hate & Discontent

    Hate & Discontent Yo, homie. Is that my briefcase?

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    Didn't someone start an almost identical thread a while back?

    Oh, wait....
     
  10. whiskeyguy

    whiskeyguy PR representative for Drunk Whiskeyguy.

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    The Republican candidates are really fucking up... but I still think you're probably wrong for a few reasons.

    1) Most of the country isn't paying attention to the Republican candidates this early. They couldn't tell you who Cain even is, let alone why he dropped out. They'll pay attention once we have two absolute front-runners.

    2) Obama's base doesn't care this election. He got them going the last time and provided them with absolutely nothing. A lot of his voters were people who had never voted before also, and they're going to see that result and think it's just not worth it. Hell, in my area he should have a lock but he fucked that up by going after medical marijuana growers/clinics.

    3) The conservatives are extremely motivated to get Obama out. They think (and probably rightfully so) that we have only seen a fraction of what he'll try to do if he doesn't have to worry about re-election.

    4) The media backs Obama. They're going to paint the most optimistic picture possible, because that may both discourage people who would otherwise vote against him or perhaps encourage some to vote for him.
     
  11. afternoonquil

    afternoonquil Apology Ostrich

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    I agree haeder.

    I remember when dewey beat Truman.
     
  12. MayrMeninoCrash

    MayrMeninoCrash Liberal Psycopath

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    And when they wake up and realize their choices are Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney, they'll go back to sleep until 2016.

    This MIGHT happen if the GOP candidate picked a moderate VP. But pair Romney up with Sarah Palin or some other Fundie wacko and see them rush to the polls. And we all know the GOP would never shoot themselves in the foot like that.......

    Obama has a huge war chest and every viable GOP candidate has a closet full of ugly baggage. He doesn't even have to run ads for his own campaign, just remind GOP voters why Gingrich or Romney are not much of an improvement, if not a greater liability, and he could win by default.

    Assuming this talking point were true, isn't this his greatest asset? Could the media motivate people to vote for Obama over Newt/Mitt by running some scary "Your healthcare/welfare/well being is about to be taken away by the greedy Republicans!" story?

    I agree with what Patton Oswalt said on the show last week. Republicans are running with some truly horrible candidates, and unfortunately some of you are so deluded to this fact, you won't admit it until they receive the Mondale-esque demolishing in November that we all know is coming.
     
  13. Voss's Tumor

    Voss's Tumor Banned

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    Miss Moonachie section. :(
     
  14. Josh_R

    Josh_R Registered User

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    http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Gallup-swing-Obama-Romney/2011/12/13/id/420794

     
  15. whiskeyguy

    whiskeyguy PR representative for Drunk Whiskeyguy.

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    You may be right, but there are many conservatives who are going to vote the "anything but" ticket in 2012.

    I think they're smart enough to not pull a nomination like that again. Then again, who knows.

    Again you're talking about independents, who I doubt Obama can win over regardless of his competition. He simply has done extremely little for them in this last term... and independents are the type to respond to things like like the economy (stuff that directly affects them) more than to empty rhetoric.

    I think the media backing him worked last time, because people didn't have any experience with Obama to base their decision on. Right now I think it's much worse for him than the media is portraying.

    Look at how they're reacting to potential voter fraud right now... not very strongly. No one is talking about it, and those that are keep saying "oh well, what does it change". Bush challenged an election in court and people accused him of stealing it... forging signatures is much worse.
     
  16. nikoloslvy

    nikoloslvy I wear my sunglasses at night...Anyone want fries?
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    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ron-paul-spoiler/2011/12/08/gIQAVceCjO_story.html

     
  17. Sinn Fein

    Sinn Fein Infidel and White Interloper
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    Voter fraud.

    /thread.
     
  18. CousinDave

    CousinDave Registered User

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    I have no doubt that come Jan 20, 2013 there will be a new POTUS, now whether its going to be Gingrich, Romney, Hillary, or even Al Gore, I don't know, but I do know that just the fact that there will be a new POTUS will make the population feel better, they'll have more confidence in the government, etc... More confidence means more consuming, more consuming means more jobs, more jobs means more money, etc...

    The problem is that we're just over a year away from that point and even then its probably going to take 9-12 months after the inauguration before it really starts making a significant impact on the economy that people will feel secure enough to start making major purchases like cars, homes, etc... not to mention major increases in simple discretionary spending.

    So, we've (as a country) still got a good 2 years of hurting on us - thanks Barry
     
  19. Plunkies

    Plunkies Registered User

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    Incumbent president always wins. Voting is for suckers.
     
  20. fletcher

    fletcher Darkness always says hello.
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    Really, genius?

     
  21. KRSOne

    KRSOne Registered User

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  22. whiskeyguy

    whiskeyguy PR representative for Drunk Whiskeyguy.

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    Does anyone think Hillary could take the nomination from Obama? I know it's an extremely difficult thing to do, but it seems like if it could ever happen now is the time.

    If Hillary won the ticket, the Democrats would have a better chance of beating the Republicans in 2012.
     
  23. CousinDave

    CousinDave Registered User

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    I really can't see how the Democrat party can run with Barry next year, I really think the party bosses are going to have to tell him that Michelle has to get cancer or something and he'll have to pull a Johnson so he can "spend more time with his family" the closer it gets to the convention the tougher it will be for Hillary or Al Gore to win the election, not to mention having a chance at keeping the Republicans from getting 60+ votes in the US Senate

    But the Democrat Party has to do something otherwise Barry is going to cost them a shit load more seats in the US Congress and the state legislatures. The Republicans already control most of the state legislatures and the new district lines they have drawn are favorable to Republicans - Barry running for reelection is going to make it even more difficult for Dems in those swing districts at the national & state level

    I like 'gridlock' and to have gridlock we need to have two political parties that are pretty equal in power - If the Dems don't ditch Barry the Republicans are going to have absolute power for some time, they've already got control for the US House of Reps until the district lines are redrawn after the next Census in 2020.
     
  24. Don the Radio Guy

    Donator

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    I't primary season. Even Obama got smashed up during the primaries in 2008. It's what happens. To panic at this point shows complete ignorance of the process. The "independent" vote (meaning idiots who don't pay attention to politics) that decides every election doesn't start caring until August or September of the election year. Any one of the GOP candidates can beat Obama, and vice versa. It all depends on how the economy is doing in the fall of 2012 and how much the media can fool the uninformed into voting for their boy. Both of those things remain to be seen.

    Personally I still think Romney pulls it out somehow and wins, but as boring as they are, any one of the GOP candidates would do just fine at this point.
     
  25. Badfinger

    Badfinger I shot the sheriff

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    Anybody but Obama.
    Wait. Anybody but Obama or Hillary.
    Hold on. Anybody but Obama, Hillary or Pelosi.

    OK, I can live with that.
     

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