Obama is gonna be re-elected by 3-4 points. Might not even have more than 50% of the popular vote if a third party candidate has a strong showing. Why? For the same reason that the Democrats couldn't defeat Bush in 2004: shitty opponent. Couple that with the conservative, Tea Party, moderate and Donald Trump wings of the Republican Party destroying the credibility of every candidate and you've got a solid campaign strategy for a second place finish in the 2012 presidential election. A billion dollars of fundraising by Obama isn't gonna hurt his cause either. In 2016, the Republican candidate will destroy any Democrat with Whitehouse aspirations. Until then, we're stuck with what we've got.